Drop rates, loss runs and transparency
None of what follows is new, but I hope it encourages EA to have a think about how they handle artificially stochastic functions in the game, and gives some of you a bit more info about how to gain d...
Forum Discussion
"Acrofales;864969" wrote:
I don't think we're disagreeing, just calculating 2 different things. I was calculating (1) the probability of me going on a 15-run dry spell, and then putting it into perspective by calculating there being a dry spell of at least 15 sims in a sequence of 100 sims (pretty sure my 95% on that is correct).
I also agree that being able to compute the expected maximum loss sequence for a number of runs is far more useful (and will let you put it into perspective). I saw you did that for stun guns, and my 15 run sequence is still within the bounds.
Now I accumulated enough energy for another 3 sims. So lets go see what I get!
---
And. Zip. Nada. Squat.
So we're up to an 18-run. Which is out of bounds for maximum expected dry spell (was that a 95% confidence interval?) in 100 sims. Of course, you computed it for a sequence of 100 sims, which is an arbitrary number of sims you chose because it's a pretty round number. And I don't really know how many I have done. I stopped somewhere around 30 stun guns to do light side battles for the daily. I then got up to 46 stun guns before my dry spell started. So how do we count that sequence? In total it's clearly more than 100 sims, but since the light side battles ended, I spent 4 refreshes, so we're only up to 48 sims + natural regen (probably another 30 or so?)
Aha! You're counting each simulation as a sample, but i was actually measuring the number of runs rather than the number of trials. I can't think of a way to calculate run length probability in terms of trials except as it was done in one of the papers i linked to in the OP, so I really ant to know: how do you derive your equation 1 - 0.96^(X - 1)?
Here's some precomputed values for the expected maximum run length (in number of trials) for a given number of runs (not trials) and drop rates:
drop_rate loss_runs E_max_length_loss_run
1: 0.05 20 68
2: 0.10 20 32
3: 0.15 20 20
4: 0.20 20 14
5: 0.25 20 11
6: 0.30 20 8
7: 0.35 20 6
8: 0.40 20 5
9: 0.45 20 4
10: 0.50 20 3
11: 0.05 40 81
12: 0.10 40 39
13: 0.15 40 24
14: 0.20 40 17
15: 0.25 40 13
16: 0.30 40 10
17: 0.35 40 8
18: 0.40 40 6
19: 0.45 40 5
20: 0.50 40 4
21: 0.05 60 89
22: 0.10 60 42
23: 0.15 60 27
24: 0.20 60 19
25: 0.25 60 14
26: 0.30 60 11
27: 0.35 60 9
28: 0.40 60 7
29: 0.45 60 6
30: 0.50 60 5
31: 0.05 80 95
32: 0.10 80 45
33: 0.15 80 29
34: 0.20 80 20
35: 0.25 80 15
36: 0.30 80 12
37: 0.35 80 10
38: 0.40 80 8
39: 0.45 80 6
40: 0.50 80 5
41: 0.05 100 99
42: 0.10 100 47
43: 0.15 100 30
44: 0.20 100 21
45: 0.25 100 16
46: 0.30 100 13
47: 0.35 100 10
48: 0.40 100 8
49: 0.45 100 7
50: 0.50 100 5
51: 0.05 120 103
52: 0.10 120 49
53: 0.15 120 31
54: 0.20 120 22
55: 0.25 120 17
56: 0.30 120 13
57: 0.35 120 10
58: 0.40 120 9
59: 0.45 120 7
60: 0.50 120 6
61: 0.05 140 106
62: 0.10 140 50
63: 0.15 140 32
64: 0.20 140 23
65: 0.25 140 17
66: 0.30 140 13
67: 0.35 140 11
68: 0.40 140 9
69: 0.45 140 7
70: 0.50 140 6
71: 0.05 160 108
72: 0.10 160 52
73: 0.15 160 33
74: 0.20 160 23
75: 0.25 160 18
76: 0.30 160 14
77: 0.35 160 11
78: 0.40 160 9
79: 0.45 160 7
80: 0.50 160 6
81: 0.05 180 111
82: 0.10 180 53
83: 0.15 180 34
84: 0.20 180 24
85: 0.25 180 18
86: 0.30 180 14
87: 0.35 180 11
88: 0.40 180 9
89: 0.45 180 8
90: 0.50 180 6
91: 0.05 200 113
92: 0.10 200 54
93: 0.15 200 34
94: 0.20 200 24
95: 0.25 200 18
96: 0.30 200 14
97: 0.35 200 12
98: 0.40 200 10
99: 0.45 200 8
100: 0.50 200 6
drop_rate loss_runs E_max_length_loss_run
