getting robbed in squad cantina battles!

The plural of anecdote is not data.

Random is random. Today you can go 10 for 10 on shards and tomorrow 0 for 10. That's random. I probably average in the 1 for 6/7 range overall. Yes, I do wish it wasn't so severe, but them is the random breaks of the games I play.

Do any of you track your drop rates?

Here are my numbers for my cantina pulls going back to the double days. As you can see some days are better than others but I find that if you track your shard pull count it puts it into perspective and worth a try and you'll probably see it balances out. As you can see excluding the double days I'm on 30%


4th may
34/43
30/32
6/22
9/34
15/37
3/22
9/30
8/22
Today

"Darth_Paul_757;38743" wrote:
Since the last update there has been a significant reduction in the amount of character shards that are being paid out.

Go back to first day the game was out.. this is a REPEAT thread (many many times) the game has NOT changed, shards are hard to get.. so there is no reduction.

It's not a coin toss it's a percentage, and its 33%.. it level out over time... today you get none, tomorrow you get 5.. next day 2, next 2 more.. 3 days 3 a day..

That's called RANDOM sequence, I am guess you never too statistics in college.. or just statistics at all.

Its supposed to be an element of RANDOM that's how games work.. ALL of them. Predictability leads to boredom, boredom leads to hate, hate leads.. oh forget it..

"Metainventer;399765" wrote:

"Darth_Paul_757;38743" wrote:
Since the last update there has been a significant reduction in the amount of character shards that are being paid out. I don't know if this was done purposely or if it's a glitch but it sucks none the less. I know games are into making money but this is just rediculous! I hope this will be addressed ASAP!

I have the opposite of your luck so I'm happy with all my royal guard shards :smile:

Criticism is clouding your judgement I guarantee you the same drop rate as the rest of us.. you don't track it, so of course it will seem off... you WANT more shards..

I get the sense something is off with the drop rate, but I don't think it's game-wide. It feels like some nodes drop more shards than other. Another poster mentioned RG; his nodes have a good drop rate (I got a bunch last night), but other drops seem oddly low, especially gear to get to VII (for protection). Plo and Daka drop rates are abysmal. I farm Daka every day and sometimes two or three days go by before I get a single shard (three harvests per day). Maybe it is just luck but I get the feeling drop rates vary depending on the node.

Everytime theres an update people say there was a drop rate reduction. So whats it at now? 0.6%?

TLDR: I do think there could be an issue with their RNG.

Some background:
Real random numbers on a computer aren't possible so an algorithm is used. This algorithm generates a sequence with (apparently) zero correlation between terms. After a certain length of sequence it is not possible to spot any pattern in the terms (i.e. they seem random).

However, it is a known problem that some basic RNG algorithms aren't truly random and in fact, can require a long 'burn in' before the numbers are truly random. Prior to this burn-in one can have long sequences (hot or cold streaks) that occur more commonly than would be expected from a true random process.

I suspect this may be happening in the game. This would mean both sides above are correct - there are indeed cold streaks which don't seem random (and shouldn't occur as much as they do) but the long term averages work out as they should. Both these things can be true in this situation.

If I am right then the best thing to do when you get a cold streak is to go and do some other action in the game (e.g. leave cantina and do a challenge or something to reset the RNG sequence). I find this does tend to break the cycle of the cold streak. Of course, if you have a success then keep going as the 'bad' RNG may be favouring you in such cases.

Of course, all this could be confirmation bias, but a bugged RNG is certainly quite possible and would display the properties that people do seem to observe (and given how many other bugs are in the game it wouldn't surprise me at all!)

See here for an example of a RNG with these issues: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_Twister

"EventineElessedil;399318" wrote:
No change in drop rate. Win some days, lose some days. Yesterday I went 13/24 for Jawa* shards. Ching!
*Yes, I'm farming Jawa shards.

You are not alone. Working towards 6 stars at the moment. His omega stun AOE seemed to good to not farm

@Greg1920 - all the tracking that people have done has been based on looking at the long term average. I am sure this works out correct.

What I think may be happening is that there are more 'patches' than should be expected from a truly random process (in this case a negative binomial process). As far as I am aware nobody has tracked the 'patchiness' of drops when looking at this long term data.

The RNG could be generating more patchiness than it should and still have the long term average correct.