Mission Shard Drop Rates

I am having worse luck with t3 than mission... I think people are claiming one of them have lower drop rates, but it's 30% vs 35%, not like 5%

"USAFmedic129;d-188004" wrote:
Anyone else having horrible luck with Mission’s cantina node.

Over the last several days I have spent all earned cantina energy and refreshes on her and earned 1 character shard and 2 purple ability mats per day. I got T3 up to 7* in under a month. Is Mission the vHan of Revan?

It's RNG + more expensive node.

Lol that's pretty specific for not tracking it.

Yes and 37% is a pretty specific estimate. But ok.

"TVF;c-1700509" wrote:
Yes and 37% is a pretty specific estimate. But ok.

He meant 37% +- 15%, which I believe to be totally accurate.

The overall game-wide rate is the same.

The thing about probabilities - everyone's individual results will still vary. But over a large enough sample size, the overall drop rate is highly likely to center around the theoretical drop rate (assuming all characters have the same drop rate, which has always been the "party line" from the devs).

For example: Vendi's numbers *can* be broken into individual characters...but I believe it's more accurate to combine them into a 380/1074 = 35% drop rate over those two characters. Since I believe the drop rate should be 30%, that means he's experiencing a statistically "lucky" break, and there is likely a corresponding person who is experiencing a 25% drop rate.

Not to put anyone to sleep with statistics, but to add to what @jkray622 said, it takes a very large sample size to be sure of what a random number drop is.

In order to be 99% sure what the actual drop rate is with a even a +/- 5 percent on either side the sample size needs to be 666 attempts.

So even 2 people did the same 666 attempts there is only a 99% chance that both of them would be within 5% of the actual drop rate. Meaning that I could (though highly unlikely) get a 35% drop rate, someone else could get a 25% drop rate (assuming the actual drop rate is 30%), even with 666 attempts (and no I am not making that number up).

If you want to be 99% sure with a +/- of 1 you need to do 16,641 attempts.

With an expected percentage of 30 if you were to do 20 attempts (which I believe is the max you can do at one time in the game) you can be 99% sure that the drop rate will be between 3.56% and 56.44% or 30% +/- 26.44%. In other words 20 attempts gives you no clue about what the percentage is and the drops at that low a sample size can be wildly different.

TLDR - none of us are doing a large enough sample size (attempts) on a single node in a row to remove the RNG and get a true drop rate for that node.

"USAFmedic129;c-1702266" wrote:
Even under double drops I am only getting 0-1 shard returns on Mission. This is also now day 3 of no shards dropping for Zalbar in either fleet or hard node. The RNG in this game is just too much. Grats to those with awesome shard drop rates.

You can't get 1 shard drops under double drops; 1 is not a multiple of 2.

'Hiya holotable heroes!

Now that Double Drops are over we're thrilled to let you know that the shard drops for Hard Nodes have been changed to 0.5 shards per drop. That gives you even more opportunity to farm gear so you can enjoy your favourite toons when you unlock them!'