Mission Shard Drop Rates
Anyone else having horrible luck with Mission’s cantina node. Over the last several days I have spent all earned cantina energy and refreshes on her and earned 1 character shard and 2 purple abilit...
Forum Discussion
Not to put anyone to sleep with statistics, but to add to what @jkray622 said, it takes a very large sample size to be sure of what a random number drop is.
In order to be 99% sure what the actual drop rate is with a even a +/- 5 percent on either side the sample size needs to be 666 attempts.
So even 2 people did the same 666 attempts there is only a 99% chance that both of them would be within 5% of the actual drop rate. Meaning that I could (though highly unlikely) get a 35% drop rate, someone else could get a 25% drop rate (assuming the actual drop rate is 30%), even with 666 attempts (and no I am not making that number up).
If you want to be 99% sure with a +/- of 1 you need to do 16,641 attempts.
With an expected percentage of 30 if you were to do 20 attempts (which I believe is the max you can do at one time in the game) you can be 99% sure that the drop rate will be between 3.56% and 56.44% or 30% +/- 26.44%. In other words 20 attempts gives you no clue about what the percentage is and the drops at that low a sample size can be wildly different.
TLDR - none of us are doing a large enough sample size (attempts) on a single node in a row to remove the RNG and get a true drop rate for that node.
In order to be 99% sure what the actual drop rate is with a even a +/- 5 percent on either side the sample size needs to be 666 attempts.
So even 2 people did the same 666 attempts there is only a 99% chance that both of them would be within 5% of the actual drop rate. Meaning that I could (though highly unlikely) get a 35% drop rate, someone else could get a 25% drop rate (assuming the actual drop rate is 30%), even with 666 attempts (and no I am not making that number up).
If you want to be 99% sure with a +/- of 1 you need to do 16,641 attempts.
With an expected percentage of 30 if you were to do 20 attempts (which I believe is the max you can do at one time in the game) you can be 99% sure that the drop rate will be between 3.56% and 56.44% or 30% +/- 26.44%. In other words 20 attempts gives you no clue about what the percentage is and the drops at that low a sample size can be wildly different.
TLDR - none of us are doing a large enough sample size (attempts) on a single node in a row to remove the RNG and get a true drop rate for that node.
