Jawa Engineer very rare in Guild Store
This has come up a lot the past few days on my guild chat. Small sample size but a guildmate and I just payed for a combined 6 refreshes, no JE. I paid for 3 of the jawa/ewok packs the other day...
Forum Discussion
"NicWester;733148" wrote:"JoseIrimia;732511" wrote:"NicWester;732424" wrote:
Confirmation bias. There's no conspiracy.
That's the problem in this game. Many people just running up and down mindlessness saying "It's RNG" or "confirmation bias" to justify everything.
It took me to fully level JE way longer than what was expected if the rate of apperance were 1/3. So, it's not RNG. It's like the type/shape of mods or the raid gear, not all have the same probability of drop. In this game some event probability is not random.
Roll a die a thousand times and you'll see the same number come up in long sequences because there are only six possible results. There are half that many raid characters so you're going to see more frequent, even longer sequences.
When you have less than 400 guild currency you don't even look at the store, let alone spend crystals for refreshes, so you aren't seeing the data.
Finally, just to use my anecdotal experience, I was at 70/85 on JE yesterday when our raid ended and put me at ~1600 currency. Of the five shipments since then, four were JE.
I do not need to roll a die a thousand times to figure out whether is loaded or not. With only 3 possible results, you even need less tries. Actually, following the Pearson chi-square test you need less than 50 rolls to become statistically significant one way or another. Then, you can say "is loaded" or "Let's roll it more until I may see what I want to see and the Devs told me I have to see".
Well, farming JE: it needs to show up a total of 66 times to be fully leveled, so should take 2 months (1/3 of apperance in theory, 3 refreshes a day) so the amount of observations is very high. Took me 3 months, therefore, I believe the die is loaded.
Whether is intentional or a bug, I do not know.
