Speed Kills - How to Find the Best Speed Mods
Speed is a constant pain in the rear. You have a team that is more powerful than the same 5 toons in the Arena. You face off and the more powerful team wins, right? No, the auto-play team which is 2k ...
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"sjkerhfgdjhd;1002612" wrote:
Here are the odds for each colour of mod to upgrade speed. The numbers are the odds for a mod to upgrade speed at least that many times, and then I put the odds of upgrading that many times but no more in brackets where applicable.
Green
0 upgrades, 0%
1 upgrade, 100%
Blue
0 upgrades, 25%
1 upgrade, 75%(50%)
2 upgrades, 25%
Purple
0 upgrades, 29.64%
1 upgrade, 70.36%(44.44%)
2 upgrades, 25.92%(22.22%)
3 upgrades, 3.7%
Gold
0 upgrades, 31.65%
1 upgrade, 68.25%(42.18%)
2 upgrades, 26.17%(21.09%)
3 upgrades, 5.08%(4.69%)
4 upgrades, 0.39%
As you can see, while the odds of getting a single upgrade drops off steadily, for the good mods where speed has upgraded at least twice it only goes up as the quality increases. I would still say it is worth buying green mods with a speed secondary if they have one of the valuable primary stats, but probably not otherwise, unless you have a lot of credits to spare. But once you start to get good fast mods for your arena team even blue mods may not be desirable unless the secondary and/or set bonus fit well on your team.
These numbers aren't correct either. Some of them are, but not all of them.
What formula are you using to calculate these stats?
Green and blue are good.
Purple
3 stats revealed is a 1/3 chance each of 3 upgrades.
That means a 33% chance of exactly 1 upgrade, or a 33 + 10.89 + 3.59 = 47.48% chance of at least 1 upgrade.
.33 * .33 = 10,89 % chance for exactly 2 upgrades 10.89 + 3.59 = 14.48% chance of at least 2 upgrades.
.33 * .33 * .33 = 3.59% chance for 3 upgrades
Gold
4 stats revealed is a 1/4 chance each of 4 upgrades
That means a 25% chance of exactly one upgrade, or a 25 + 8.2 = 33.2% chance of at least 1 upgrade.
.25 * .25 = 6.25% chance of exactly 2 upgrades, or an 6.25 + 1.95 = 8.2% chance of at least 2 upgrades
.25 * .25 * .25 = 1.56% chance of exactly 3 upgrades, or a 1.56 + .39 = 1.95% chance of at least 3 upgrades.
.25 * .25 * .25 * .25 = 0.39% chance of exactly 4 upgrades
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