Does it matter which balloons you pop in KL?

So if five days after starting TSTO, after a total of 10 games at sideshow Bob's, I win the donuts, then does my next guaranteed set of donuts come no later than my 310th try, or did that early win already account for the first 300, meaning I need to wait as long as a maximum 590 more tries?

I've been playing this game nonstop for over a year now, and visit Krustyland pretty regularly. I have two other towns where I visit it most days. I have won ONE time. 83 cents worth of donuts. Yay! 8)