OnePoundBeef wrote:
Skydude252 wrote:
LPNintendoITA wrote:
kylstrk wrote:
Skydude252 wrote:
That's pretty cool. Shame I beat the odds to not get one today, having tapped 300 times and not finding one...
The 1 in 200 odds probably means those are the odds, per tap, every time. Not that you're likely to get 1 in 200 taps. If that makes sense...
exactly. just like Shiny pokemon
Oh I understand what that means. Each one is an independent chance. Basically, the odds of NOT getting a donut for each chance are 99.5% if it's 1 in 200. The odds of getting zero donuts for 300 taps is the product of each independent observation (I'm forgetting stats terms, been a while since I took a class), which comes out to 22.2292%. Which means that supposedly, if you visit 100 friends every day, you should get at least one donut 77.7708% of the time.
If the 1 in 200 odds are accurate.
So per 870 possible taps daily, on average how many doughnuts would you say we well get/day?
Where do you get the 870 taps daily? 100 friends x 3 taps per friend = 300 taps daily. Which means that you should average out to 10-11 donuts per week (.5% x 2100 taps). It will likely be a little higher for some lucky folks, a little lower for people like me. Also, uncertain whether it's 1 in 200 per tap or per total visit to a friend.
