Golden Ticket - Odds?

bionicpeonTCU wrote:
It is at a MINIMUM equal to buying donuts by the dozen ($0.167 US per donut). However, I suspect most people who buy donuts, at least spend $10 or $20 to get the volume break. We need to be able to calculate the odds of getting more donuts through 20 golden tickets vs buying $20/Truck or $10/Tray.

How were the statistics discovered for the Homer Buddha (link below) and can how do we get the odds for the ticket prizes? The poll is a good start I guess.

Cost per donut in store
2400 100 $0.042
900 50 $0.056
300 20 $0.067
132 10 $0.076
60 5 $0.083
12 2 $0.167

Cost per donut - ticket prizes
100 1 $0.01
50 1 $0.02
20 1 $0.05
12 1 $0.083
9 1 $0.111
6 1 $0.167

http://simpsonswiki.net/wiki/The_Simpsons:_Tapped_Out#Homer_Buddha_statistics

The poll is probably meaningless for estimating the actual odds; the respondents probably don't come close to representing a random sample of gamers purchasing the Scratch-R's.