long odds

HisWrath wrote:
It was one year ago today that the odds and pricing for Springfield Downs were changed, introducing the $200K 99:1 bet (today is also the one year anniversary of Squidport!). I liked the idea of seeing a $200K payout at least once so I started diligently betting only the 99:1 dog right from the get-go. So what do I have to show for it after a year? Nothing! Not a single win in ~700 bets. I am just colossally unlucky? My experience at Easter would suggest so but I know I wasn't alone there. I suppose it doesn't matter much with $35 million in the bank but still...

I'm really exhausted by this event at the moment, but I'll take a stab at it.

From what I gather reading the tstotopix site the probability is really 152/10,000 of wining that. Hence a probability of 9,848/10,000 of losing it. So to lose 700 times in a row the probability would be 0.9848 raised to the 700th power which is
0.00002206113

i.e. about 22 in a million.

When I tried what you did it took over two months to win. I now only bet the 2-1 which has a probability of winning at really 5051/10,000 (per tstotopix again), which is really a little over 2-1.

Neglecterino wrote:
I'm really exhausted by this event at the moment, but I'll take a stab at it.

From what I gather reading the tstotopix site the probability is really 152/10,000 of wining that. Hence a probability of 9,848/10,000 of losing it. So to lose 700 times in a row the probability would be 0.9848 raised to the 700th power which is
0.00002206113

i.e. about 22 in a million.

When you put it that way it makes me feel actually quite lucky. :D Thanks for the math and I'm with you on this event. I've taken to checking in after midnight most nights. At least there isn't any gambling this time.