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8 years ago
"moviefansam;1592099" wrote:"girl22721;1592084" wrote:
Are you willing to share your theory on this? The only thing I've noticed is that the results feel slightly streaky, so I usually try to pick the same box as the previous 3 donut location. If that doesn't work, I sometimes do the opposite for the second try and go for least recent one, if I can remember that far back, or else choose randomly for the second attempt. This is, however, just based on feelings, not backed up with evidence!
I'm enough of a nerd that I did track it for a while, and the #s I got match closely to your gut feeling. Over the course of about 1000 boxes, the distribution of my 'first choice' was almost evenly split between 1, 2, or 3.
I also had numerous 'streaks' like you describe, which in a reasonably random system should occur. I think the problem is that we all remember bad events more distinctly than good ones, so those times you get 1 donut in the first box you pick 8 times in a row, that stands out more in memory than the hot streaks, but after tracking it for a bit I felt confident it was very close to evenly spread out.
Just for grins, I also made note tracked this for a while, but my sample size was smaller — about 200. But the results were the same as yours — an even split between Positions 1, 2, and 3.
I know it’s been said before, but perhaps it bears repeating. There have been over the years a slew of scientific studies showing that humans are in various ways predisposed to try and causally interpret events that are, in fact, totally random.
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