Forum Discussion
8 years ago
"girl22721;1592084" wrote:"sflowers330;1592069" wrote:
Note, this assumes that the probability of the 3 donut choice is equally spread across the boxes, which in my experience is not the case.
Are you willing to share your theory on this? The only thing I've noticed is that the results feel slightly streaky, so I usually try to pick the same box as the previous 3 donut location. If that doesn't work, I sometimes do the opposite for the second try and go for least recent one, if I can remember that far back, or else choose randomly for the second attempt. This is, however, just based on feelings, not backed up with evidence!
Ive been shouted down before, but I don't mind sharing my experience, I'm not trying to convince anyone anymore. Your mileage may vary.....
My observations:
I recorded 300 or so bonus boxes and the results % were 37, 43, 20 (L,C,R). So I altered my choice behavior to match that: center, left then right. I've done about 3000 boxes since then and observed that my average cost for getting 3 bonuts was somewhere around or below 30k, which is less than the 50k it should be for a perfect random distribution.
My theory
No patterns so to speak but not a properly pseudo random distribution which ends up distorting the outcome.
I agree it definitely feels streaky sometimes, and I've been known to chase them sometimes lol
My 0.02
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