Forum Discussion
11 years ago
splatomat wrote:I spent 150 donuts on 30 spins and cleared all the prizes with 5 spins left.
a word about "fair" and "chance"........
A coin is exactly 50/50 chance for heads and tails. If you were to toss 99 heads on the trot, the chance of the next toss being a head is still exactly 50/50!
stats have no memory.
A coin has two equal sides. This wheel is like rolling a six sided die with one side that is 100% smaller than the others. Also, the game does have a limited memory because it replaces prizes with garbage. While your chances of landing on that spot do not change, your chances of earning garbage as opposed to something good actually diminish with every win. Thats a serious problem.
Also, to the people talking about probability...unless you take that data mined information as fact, you have to throw a lot of coins at the game to take a decent sample. If you do that (100+ coins) the uneven distribution becomes ridiculously obvious.
I see no evidence posted that suggests uneven distribution. There are as many "I have done really well" posters as "I was screwed" posters while if the wheel was indeed rigged big time, then evrryonewould be saying "I was screwed"
ok..... it is biased. But..... we are not seeing that bias here...... and any statistician will tell you that posts on a forum are mostly boasts from those doing well, and those doing badly.
thus we can assume that, since good reports at least equal bad reports, there is no significant skew in the distribuition.
I could be totally wrong and as evidence mounts the true pattern will reveal itself...... but I do not think that the evidence supports it yet.
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