The spin game is unfair

Just to reiterate the very basic statistics assuming a fair 1 in 10 odds for each segment, with 4 segments I don't yet have my odds would be 40% of getting one in any given spin. I just stupidly spent another 50 donuts and have less than 500 now and desperately need Gil. But that plus the one daily makes 11. Consider the odds not that a given spin will not be one of the 4 I don't own: 60%

Now, the odds of getting of those 60% twice in a row is .6 * .6 or .36. In other words, not getting anything in 2 spins is 36% and therefore 64% chance of at least one of those spins will yield something worthwhile. Now, after 11 spins the odds go up astronomically that you would get nothing worthwhile every single time: 0.362797056% in fact!

Conversely, the odds of getting at least one good item is greater than 99.6%!!

Now, remember, those are odds, and as such, of course it's still possible for me to get 9 monies and 2 bronze cards, but really, it's so unlikely were it not in a pattern I've already observed. Me, I call that fixed for the astronomical unlikely nature of it. But yes, one more spin still has 40% odds! :)

It seems rigged I bought 10 token tonight cause I only have Claus co and the yeti left besides gifts cards and money and I literally watched the screen blink when it was about to land on Claus co and it went to money. Also one day it landed just barely over the line for Claus co and into money and it gave me money but then tonight it just barely passed gift cards and landed just over the line on the yeti and gave me the money, so it did opposite of the first time in how it chose the item when it was sorta stuck right on the line In-between, choosing the one below one time and the one above the other time regardless of where it had actually landed. Both times against my favor, obviously.

kandycanada wrote:
I was starting to get annoyed with it today. But I got a token from a gift bag AND spun to win Claus Co. My face :shock: Too bad it's in my B game.

Other question, my B game was started in July, so I have nothing. And in that game I've found 2 spin tokens in gift bags whereas game A, with all the lights, has found no extra tokens. It's like, my games know which game I need to win more stuff in and are compensating with extra coins. Anyone else have this happening?

Ohh the irony in that! The opposite has been happening to me. My 2nd town only got a coin from a gift bag once, while my main town got one at least 3 times.

I take it the official odds are as follows:

Bucket 1:
Clause Co / 275 Gift Cards
156/10041

Bucket 2:
Brown House / Purple House / Pink House / Orange House / Cash
2022/10041

Bucket 3:
Yeti / 250 Gift Cards
168/10041

Bucket 4:
Flanders / Van Hauten / White / Muntz / Skinner / Cash
2022/10041

Bucket 5:
Helter Shelter / 225 Gift Cards
225/10041

Bucket 6:
Simpsons / Cletus / Blue / Willie's / Krabapple / Cash
2022/10041

Bucket 7:
Vishnu / 225 Gift Cards
225/10041

Bucket 8:
Marge / Maggie / Homer / Snowball / 50 Gift Cards
1348/10041

Bucket 9:
Mr. Plow / Plow King / 100 Gift Cards
505/10041

Bucket 10:
Lisa / Grandpa / Bart / Dog / 50 Gift Cards
1348/10041

If you already have the item and it's not a Snowman, that item will be removed and the next in the list will be added; Snowmen will always be there because you can always have more than one. Folks who add house lights from the last time around still get the Skinner House Lights because they weren't available back then and I already had the Scorpio Volcano Lights so I don't know which bin those go in. Probably in Bucket 2 but not sure at what level and would only be available if you bought the Volcano.

So if you're like me and need Clause Co, the Yeti, Plow King and Vishnu, your odds of getting any of those four are (156+168+225+505)/10041 about 10.50% or and of getting Cash when nothing you have all but that: 6066/10041 or about 60.41%.

Using my math from before, the odds of not getting something I want in 1 spin are about 89.50%. And the likelihood of nothing after 11 spins is about 29.53%, meaning there's about a 70.47% that in 11 spins I'd get at least one of them. Not astronomical odds, and certainly in the realm of reason, but just goes to show sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you!

Since then I've got the Plow King and the Yeti, so my odds are down to 381/10041 or about 3.79% per spin to get either Vishnu or Clausco; that's 32.08% in 10 spins to get at least one of them and 85.55% with 50.