heirlooms chances

 @TheRedLion93 

That's not exactly correct. Every pack has an (allbeit small) chance of being a "lucky" pack. A heirloom is guaranteed upon the opening of your 500th pack if you were not "lucky" before that point. Apart from earning and buying packs, levels do now feature in the quest for a heirloom. 

@Blandinass 

The new level cap in Apex Legends is effectively 2000. You can loop through levels 1-500 4 times. 

Provided you do it on 1 account, the total number of packs you can now earn, through leveling up, is 544. That is a guaranteed heirloom.

As mentioned above, there are 3rd party sites that can give you a rough idea of where you are in the countdown to your heirloom, if you do not get a "lucky" pack before opening 500 packs. 

@TheRedLion93 

Nah thats not true. I got two of them on the same account and I havent spent much on packs, perhaps only $50 in total. The 500 pack shard thing is just a guarantee that if you havent got one after 499 opened packs, you will always get one pack 500. Alot of people also interpret this as the drop chance of a shart is 1/500 = 0.2% but I dont think anything points to conclusion either. I would guess that the actual drop rate actually lower than 0.2%.

Personally, I dont invest to much thoughts in the heirloom thing. I just dont think everyone should have one because then it just becomes a skin like any other skin and then whats the point?