Matchmaking sbmm hasn’t changed in season 20

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@Palette24carats wrote:
@Midnight9746predators are a very very tiny minority so it doesnt matter we supposedly are in their lobbies because there are way more rookies, silvers, gold than predators.

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Wanted to respond to this with some good ol' math 🙂

Suppose we consider "high skilled players" to be the top 5% of all of Apex (diamonds, masters and preds) and the "top players" to be the top 1% (preds and masters).

Then the chance (under complete random matchmaking, aka rookie) that a player is not a "high skilled player" is 95% (remember we defined a "high skilled player" to be in the top 5% of Apex). And the chance that there are NO high skilled players in your lobby at all is (95%)^57 (that is 95% multiplied for each enemy in the lobby). This is roughly 5.4%.
This means there is a 94.6% chance of at least one player being in the top 5% of your server.

For the top 1% this changes to (99%)^57 = 56.4% chance that there are no top 1% players in your lobby and thus a 43.6% chance that there is at least one top 1% player in your lobby.

This does not take into account that the highest skill player play this game more (which makes them more likely to encounter), that active high skilled players quickly move out of the lower ranks (which makes them less likely to encounter), that active high skilled players are more likely to smurf (making them more likely to encounter), and that the winner of a fight is often the higher skilled player (which means that they survive longer and thus makes them more likely to encounter)

Due to the large number of players in a lobby, it is actually rather likely that a low skilled player encounters (and perishes at the hands of) a significantly higher skilled player.

I really want a "whoops, you died to somebody way outside of your skill. Have 100 free Apex coins." penalty to EA. Just to watch them bleed money for 5 minutes (after which they miraculously solved it).