@Anjunakrokus wrote:.
Mathematically this has to do with the fact that the probability of getting shards from a single pack is not independent from how many packs you've openend.
@Anjunakrokus my brain hurts 😃 I read and reread your posts, and even googled a bit to see if I could grasp what you were positing. And no it's clearly beyond my pay grade.
How can it not be Independant, as a packs number opened is a number lost into the ether and has no bearing on the next packs outcome? Other than pack 500. And with packs are we not talking about whole numbers?
To add to your probability sums, I got my shards for €43 as part of the anniversary event last year, combined with lots of crafting materials and a few spare coins and a ea play membership (€1) giving a shop discount of 10%.
@OldTreeCreeper wrote:
@Anjunakrokus my brain hurts 😃 I read and reread your posts, and even googled a bit to see if I could grasp what you were positing. And no it's clearly beyond my pay grade.
Thats the beauty of it, but the results can be read, there is a feact that there is a fixed chance of getting shards from 1-499 apex pack opening, but the fact that you have a 100% chance on 500 makes that a thing. The chance technically dont change if you are on pack 1 or pack 499 but you can add dimentions to this and calculate a statistical spread on where most people get their packs and create statistics on this. So @Anjunakrokus tried to calculate his version of this and explained what he did to do this, if you are a statistician you can evaluate or even suggest a different approach or if you are not you can evaluate and read the results and just enjoy that someone actually took the time to do this, I think its awesome :D
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