they said its a fixed chance up to 500 where chance is 100%, the fixed chance <500 is very low but constant (not known exact number though), but that does not mean the statistics will be supporting the technical definition when measuring reality, because if you check the measurements with how many opened shards on their first apex pack vs the people who opened at 420 packs vs 499 packs it will differ for sure, most people I heard got their above 3-400. Sadly only Respawn has the real numbers so its very hard making an accurate model, but you can model based on the information you have to make a best guess model.
@Zkepz chance 😃
All packs have 500 to 1 to get shards
Up to pack 500 which is 100%
But if we look at it this way
Pack 1 is 500 to 1
Pack 2 is 499 to 1 as only 499 packs left to go.... Etc 😃
Down to pack 499 which is evens.
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