how many heirloom shards does 1 pack give?

@TrancyGoose So basically the odds of getting Shards from an individual pack as stated by the devs are less than 1%. Based on what I have seen in game and the 500 pack guarantee you can guess the odds are some place in the .2% range. 1/500= .2% for any apex pack opened from 1-499 packs. Those odds do not increase with packs opened. Every single time you open an apex pack the odds of getting shards are .2%, it does not matter if you've opened 498 packs it's still .2%

If you open 500 packs on the 500th pack you are guaranteed to get 1 set of heirloom shards.

If you are level 500 you will receive 180 apex packs for free. So you would need to purchase an additional 320 packs or spend $320. Event packs do not count towards the 500 pack guarantee.

You have to be insanely lucky to get Heirloom shards before the 500 pack guarantee. I have opened some place between 1200-1400 packs. It took 500 packs to get my first heirloom and some place between 450-490 packs to get the second. I'm probably some place between 250-300 packs opened towards my 4th heirloom. The third heirloom I got by just crafting all the event items for the Caustic Heirloom event.