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Thanks! I appreciate your compliment of my guide.
As of right now, you cannot obtain 500 Apex Packs without buying at least some, but if you've gotten good fortune cookies, you might get Shards from a Pack you got for reaching a certain level or a BP Apex Pack.
Again, if you get Shards before your 500th pack, just know how insanely lucky you are. I think it's safe to assume that you have a 1 in 500 chance (0.002%) every time you open an Apex Pack however there is no confirmation: all we are sure of is that the chance is LESS THAN 1% and once you open your 500th pack that chance rockets to 100%.
Oh, and the idea your chance increases with every pack is not true. A lot of Heirloom Guides say that your first pack has a 1 in 500 chance and this increases to 1 in 499, 1 in 488 and so on until the 500th pack which is 1 in 1. Your chance remains as <1% until you open your 500th Apex Pack which guarantees a Heirloom Shard pack.
I wish this theory was true but Heirloom Unboxings have proven this is definitely not the case ☹️
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