@DarthValtrex .5% and 1%?
I would say the odds are far lower than that.
If they were .5% per pack, after 250 packs you would have a better than 71% of having hit an heirloom. Clearly, that's not right. That's the math.
One of the biggest problem with loot box mechanics is people who are putting money into them really don't understand the mathematics and how these things are designed to work. To get what you really want (most people is heirlooms) is pretty much zero.
I did a long post on the FIFA forms a few years ago during TOTY and how "sTrEaMeRs" and "CoNtEnT cReAtOrS" and "PrOs" did pack openings and got nothing after spending 10K+ in FIFA points. That's how it's supposed to work. That's the math. Sadly, the usual conspiracy theorists came out. You can always tell who paid attention in science/math class and who was eating the glue :-P
- DR
@RockDokRockwhat math is that?
If your math was applied to a coinflip, than getting heads 4 times means you have 200% chance for tails?
I never knew % chances were stacking each unsuccesful roll.
@damsonwhufndthis Basic high school probability.
Taking the claim at face value. Each pack has an independent probability of 0.5% or 0.005 of having an heirloom (worst case in the claim of 0.5% to 1%.
The chance of *NOT* getting an heirloom in an individual pack therefore must be 99.5% (.995).
If I have 250 apex packs the probability of not getting an heirloom in any of them is .995^{250}. This is approx 28.5%
Therefore you have a probability of 71.5% of getting at least 1 heriloom in 250 packs if the individual probability weights for an heirloom (per pack) are 0.5%.
In practice these weights may vary, I get that, but for the sake of example the values suggested clearly aren't right. They will be *far far* lower.
Yes?
% chances don't "stack". I have no idea what you are on about.
- DR
@DarthValtrex Yes, i know that. The math takes that into account.
To show you take coin flipping. 50/50 heads or tails.
Heads, you get an heirloom. Tails you don't.
One flip is 50/50. 2 outcomes
H or T
Two flips 4 possible outcomes (in this case all equally likely, so 25% chance of each)
H/H
H/T
T/H
T/T
Chance of not getting an heirloom is .5 * .5 (both flips are Tails). Which is 0.25. Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75% (which you can see above, each of the 4 events is 25% chance, 3 of the 4 events would give you an heirloom ergo 75% chance).
Which one do you have a better chance at getting the heirloom? One flip or two?
Exactly the same logic used in my argument before. That's how probability works.
That's how probability works over multiple independent events. This is basic stuff guys. I am surprised I am having to "show my work".
- DR
I can confirm @DarthValtrex explanation, the RNG % is per pack with no accumulation.
The only thing that has a drop% increase with each pack opened is crafting metals, as they replace what would be a duplicate item.
Or legendary items If you count the 30 pack threshold I guess.
@MandatoryIDtag There is no accumulation. This is how probability works over multiple independent events.
I completely agree that as a single event each one has a 0.5% of working out for you. My calculations are based on that.
AS I said with the coin flipping. Do you have a better chance at hitting a Heads over 1 or 2 flips? It should be self explanatory and, yes, each "flip" has the same chance. The outcome of the first flip has zero bearing on the second nor does it change it's likely outcome. If you are unlucky with the first flip then you have a 50/50 chance with your second flip... NOTE that at that point it's a single independent event (not 2). If you calculate it using 2 independent event (having two flips) you can see the difference. This in no way "stacks" or "accumulates" results. It is looking at the probabilities of the set of results over 2 events. Same what I did with the original 0.5% calculation. It's sound.
The original claim was it was about a 0.5% per pack of getting an heirloom. What I have done is shown you how that works down over many packs. It's that simple. This is how probability works.
To put it another way, out of the people who have opened 250 packs with these odds about 71.5% of them would have received at least one heirloom.
- DR
Wait so what is the apex pack calculator for? It says how many packs you opened and the percentage of the possibility of a heirloom. So if it doesn't stack chances why does the calculator have a stack percentage?
