@DarthValtrex .5% and 1%?
I would say the odds are far lower than that.
If they were .5% per pack, after 250 packs you would have a better than 71% of having hit an heirloom. Clearly, that's not right. That's the math.
One of the biggest problem with loot box mechanics is people who are putting money into them really don't understand the mathematics and how these things are designed to work. To get what you really want (most people is heirlooms) is pretty much zero.
I did a long post on the FIFA forms a few years ago during TOTY and how "sTrEaMeRs" and "CoNtEnT cReAtOrS" and "PrOs" did pack openings and got nothing after spending 10K+ in FIFA points. That's how it's supposed to work. That's the math. Sadly, the usual conspiracy theorists came out. You can always tell who paid attention in science/math class and who was eating the glue :-P
- DR
@DarthValtrex Yes, i know that. The math takes that into account.
To show you take coin flipping. 50/50 heads or tails.
Heads, you get an heirloom. Tails you don't.
One flip is 50/50. 2 outcomes
H or T
Two flips 4 possible outcomes (in this case all equally likely, so 25% chance of each)
H/H
H/T
T/H
T/T
Chance of not getting an heirloom is .5 * .5 (both flips are Tails). Which is 0.25. Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75% (which you can see above, each of the 4 events is 25% chance, 3 of the 4 events would give you an heirloom ergo 75% chance).
Which one do you have a better chance at getting the heirloom? One flip or two?
Exactly the same logic used in my argument before. That's how probability works.
That's how probability works over multiple independent events. This is basic stuff guys. I am surprised I am having to "show my work".
- DR
@DarthValtrex No, you're making zero sense.
Show me your work - the actual math - to justify your answer. I've done so twice already and all you are doing is going on about "RNG" and "perfect" flips - neither of which makes any sense.
Its' true computer based RNG is not truly "Random" (well, you can get hardware that does this but I doubt that's the case here) but, for our purposes, the outcome of that is insignificant; the trends should follow pretty closely what I'm claiming.
Show me.
"Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75%"
How does that work?
How does chance change? If the probability of the outcome is same?
If I flip 10 times and get head 10 times do I get close to 100% chance of getting tails?
How many times do you have to flip heads to have 100% chance to get tails?
Does the coin suddenly start creating forcefield gravity towards tails side?
@damsonwhufndthis Do I stutter? It's not my fault you haven't studied probability.
2 flips. 4 outcomes. Each chance equally likely (after 2 flips).
HH - 25%
HT - 25%
TH - 25%
TT - 25%
3 of the 4 outcomes (with equal outcomes) have at least one heads. If we assume the coin is fair then they will each have a equal or probable outcome. 25%. 3 of them have heads. Therefore 75% OVER TWO FLIPS. It's really really really simple.
So if you flip a coin twice, in 75% of the cases, you should see at least one heads. I am not sure how this is a challenging concept.
You said: "How many times do you have to flip heads to have 100% chance to get tails?"
You don't. That's ridiculous. It just shows you literally don't know what you are talking about.
My original post on this topic is just being proven over and over again with this discussion.
Anyway, I'm done. Believe what you want. I've shown my work. Nobody else has shown anything other than arm waving arguments.
- DR
I can confirm @DarthValtrex explanation, the RNG % is per pack with no accumulation.
The only thing that has a drop% increase with each pack opened is crafting metals, as they replace what would be a duplicate item.
Or legendary items If you count the 30 pack threshold I guess.
@MandatoryIDtag There is no accumulation. This is how probability works over multiple independent events.
I completely agree that as a single event each one has a 0.5% of working out for you. My calculations are based on that.
AS I said with the coin flipping. Do you have a better chance at hitting a Heads over 1 or 2 flips? It should be self explanatory and, yes, each "flip" has the same chance. The outcome of the first flip has zero bearing on the second nor does it change it's likely outcome. If you are unlucky with the first flip then you have a 50/50 chance with your second flip... NOTE that at that point it's a single independent event (not 2). If you calculate it using 2 independent event (having two flips) you can see the difference. This in no way "stacks" or "accumulates" results. It is looking at the probabilities of the set of results over 2 events. Same what I did with the original 0.5% calculation. It's sound.
The original claim was it was about a 0.5% per pack of getting an heirloom. What I have done is shown you how that works down over many packs. It's that simple. This is how probability works.
To put it another way, out of the people who have opened 250 packs with these odds about 71.5% of them would have received at least one heirloom.
- DR
@RockDokRock without trying to sound rude,I'm not interested in this whole debate lol, just confirming the simplified response for anybody actually reading this and wondering how the system works. ^.^
Wait so what is the apex pack calculator for? It says how many packs you opened and the percentage of the possibility of a heirloom. So if it doesn't stack chances why does the calculator have a stack percentage?
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