Forum Discussion

4 years ago

What are the chances of you getting an heirloom in Apex Legends?

I've spent a decent amount of money on this game. I've always bought Apex packs so one day I could get a heirloom, but that day still hasn't came yet. I've bought around 200-250 packs and still noth...

discussion

DarthValtrex

Hero (Retired)

4 years ago

@RockDokRock You don't understand how RNG work. The odds do not increase with every pack opened. That's not how statistics work. The odds are a .5% chance FOR EVERY SINGLE pack, meaning you have a 99% chance at drawing something else, EVERY SINGLE PACK. It does not matter if you've opened 250 packs or 1 pack, it always a .5% for every pack opened.

The way you just explained it, you're increasing the percentage for every pack you have opened and it's not how this works or any gambling for that matter.

I don't know how else to explain this to you.

You're basically viewing it as you have 4 different outcomes, you draw one outcome and discard it. Now leaving you with 3 different outcomes.. So you're assuming that the odds of you getting 1 of the 3 outcomes you want is 33.33%.. You then draw another outcome and disgard that, you now have 2 potential outcomes left.. So you have a 50/50 chance at getting what you want.. But this is NOT how the RNG system or packs work. None of the outcomes are disgarded.

That .5% does not aggregate into a larger percentage as you open packs. The odds of heirloom stays at .5% for every single pack. The guarantee is an entirely separate function and nothing more than a counter that resets when you get a heirloom.

RockDokRock

Seasoned Ace

4 years ago

@DarthValtrex Yes, i know that. The math takes that into account.

To show you take coin flipping. 50/50 heads or tails.

Heads, you get an heirloom. Tails you don't.

One flip is 50/50. 2 outcomes

H or T

Two flips 4 possible outcomes (in this case all equally likely, so 25% chance of each)

H/H

H/T

T/H

T/T

Chance of not getting an heirloom is .5 * .5 (both flips are Tails). Which is 0.25. Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75% (which you can see above, each of the 4 events is 25% chance, 3 of the 4 events would give you an heirloom ergo 75% chance).

Which one do you have a better chance at getting the heirloom? One flip or two?

Exactly the same logic used in my argument before. That's how probability works.

That's how probability works over multiple independent events. This is basic stuff guys. I am surprised I am having to "show my work".

- DR

DarthValtrex
Hero (Retired)
4 years ago
@RockDokRock You're assuming you get 4 perfect coin flips. But you won't have 4 perfect coin flips. You're over simplifying this and a ton.

There are thousands of possibilities with this RNG. So the odds of you having "perfect" pack openings is nearly impossible. How ever if you look at packs opened by the millions, it will average out. .5% of those who open packs will receive an heirloom before the guarantee the remaining 99.5% won't. That is how this works, that is how RNG work.. There is absolutely no probable cause to it, probable cause has no place in statistics, it never has and it never will.

Probability has no place in RNG or luck based systems. I used to work on slot machines. I can tell you how many people I watched blow fortunes on slot machines because they believed "probable cause" meant they should win soon.. It just does not work that way.
- RockDokRock
  Seasoned Ace
  4 years ago
  @DarthValtrex No, you're making zero sense.
  Show me your work - the actual math - to justify your answer. I've done so twice already and all you are doing is going on about "RNG" and "perfect" flips - neither of which makes any sense.
  Its' true computer based RNG is not truly "Random" (well, you can get hardware that does this but I doubt that's the case here) but, for our purposes, the outcome of that is insignificant; the trends should follow pretty closely what I'm claiming.
  Show me.
damsonwhufndthis
Seasoned Ace
4 years ago
@RockDokRock
"Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75%"
How does that work?
How does chance change? If the probability of the outcome is same?
If I flip 10 times and get head 10 times do I get close to 100% chance of getting tails?
How many times do you have to flip heads to have 100% chance to get tails?
Does the coin suddenly start creating forcefield gravity towards tails side?
- RockDokRock
  Seasoned Ace
  4 years ago
  @damsonwhufndthis Do I stutter? It's not my fault you haven't studied probability.
  2 flips. 4 outcomes. Each chance equally likely (after 2 flips).
  HH - 25%
  HT - 25%
  TH - 25%
  TT - 25%
  3 of the 4 outcomes (with equal outcomes) have at least one heads. If we assume the coin is fair then they will each have a equal or probable outcome. 25%. 3 of them have heads. Therefore 75% OVER TWO FLIPS. It's really really really simple.
  So if you flip a coin twice, in 75% of the cases, you should see at least one heads. I am not sure how this is a challenging concept.
  You said: "How many times do you have to flip heads to have 100% chance to get tails?"
  You don't. That's ridiculous. It just shows you literally don't know what you are talking about.
  My original post on this topic is just being proven over and over again with this discussion.
  Anyway, I'm done. Believe what you want. I've shown my work. Nobody else has shown anything other than arm waving arguments.
  - DR
  - damsonwhufndthis
    Seasoned Ace
    4 years ago
    @RockDokRockwhere does the 75% chance come from again?
    In a chance of 50/50, where does 75% chance come from?