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mrfreeID's avatar
mrfreeID
4 years ago

What are the chances of you getting an heirloom in Apex Legends?

I've spent a decent amount of money on this game. I've always bought Apex packs so one day I could get a heirloom, but that day still hasn't came yet. I've bought around 200-250 packs and still noth...
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DarthValtrex's avatar
DarthValtrex
Hero (Retired)
4 years ago
@RockDokRock You don't understand how RNG work. The odds do not increase with every pack opened. That's not how statistics work. The odds are a .5% chance FOR EVERY SINGLE pack, meaning you have a 99% chance at drawing something else, EVERY SINGLE PACK. It does not matter if you've opened 250 packs or 1 pack, it always a .5% for every pack opened.

The way you just explained it, you're increasing the percentage for every pack you have opened and it's not how this works or any gambling for that matter.

I don't know how else to explain this to you.

You're basically viewing it as you have 4 different outcomes, you draw one outcome and discard it. Now leaving you with 3 different outcomes.. So you're assuming that the odds of you getting 1 of the 3 outcomes you want is 33.33%.. You then draw another outcome and disgard that, you now have 2 potential outcomes left.. So you have a 50/50 chance at getting what you want.. But this is NOT how the RNG system or packs work. None of the outcomes are disgarded.

That .5% does not aggregate into a larger percentage as you open packs. The odds of heirloom stays at .5% for every single pack. The guarantee is an entirely separate function and nothing more than a counter that resets when you get a heirloom.
MandatoryIDtag's avatar
MandatoryIDtag
4 years ago

I can confirm @DarthValtrex  explanation, the RNG % is per pack with no accumulation.

The only thing that has a drop% increase with each pack opened is crafting metals, as they  replace what would be a duplicate item.

Or legendary items If you count the 30 pack threshold I guess.

  • RockDokRock's avatar
    RockDokRock
    Seasoned Ace
    4 years ago

    @MandatoryIDtag There is no accumulation.   This is how probability works over multiple independent events.

    I completely agree that as a single event each one has a 0.5% of working out for you.  My calculations are based on that.

    AS I said with the coin flipping.  Do you have a better chance at hitting a Heads over 1 or 2 flips?  It should be self explanatory and, yes, each "flip" has the same chance.  The outcome of the first flip has zero bearing on the second nor does it change it's likely outcome.  If you are unlucky with the first flip then you have a 50/50 chance with your second flip... NOTE that at that point it's a single independent event (not 2).  If you calculate it using 2 independent event (having two flips) you can see the difference.  This in no way "stacks" or "accumulates" results.  It is looking at the probabilities of the set of results over 2 events.  Same what I did with the original 0.5% calculation.  It's sound.

    The original claim was it was about a 0.5% per pack of getting an heirloom.  What I have done is shown you how that works down over many packs.  It's that simple.  This is how probability works.  

    To put it another way, out of the people who have opened 250 packs with these odds about 71.5% of them would have received at least one heirloom.

    - DR

    • MandatoryIDtag's avatar
      MandatoryIDtag
      4 years ago

      @RockDokRock  without trying to sound rude,I'm not interested in this whole debate lol, just confirming the simplified response for anybody actually reading this and wondering how the system works. ^.^

      • RockDokRock's avatar
        RockDokRock
        Seasoned Ace
        4 years ago

        @MandatoryIDtag Yet, here you are.  I also find it interesting it's me you flag to point this out to and not the ones arguing my point.

        Not sure what you expect.  I made a claim I can backup and demonstrate yet people keep arguing and I'm not sure why.

        Bottom line is chance is small.  Deal with it, move on but as I stated originally most people have no idea how any of this works and probably think their chances are *far* better than they actually are.  

        I see this in FIFA all the time (but FIFA Is more of a P2W structure, that does not exist in Apex).

        - DR

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