@DarthValtrex Yes, i know that. The math takes that into account.
To show you take coin flipping. 50/50 heads or tails.
Heads, you get an heirloom. Tails you don't.
One flip is 50/50. 2 outcomes
H or T
Two flips 4 possible outcomes (in this case all equally likely, so 25% chance of each)
H/H
H/T
T/H
T/T
Chance of not getting an heirloom is .5 * .5 (both flips are Tails). Which is 0.25. Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75% (which you can see above, each of the 4 events is 25% chance, 3 of the 4 events would give you an heirloom ergo 75% chance).
Which one do you have a better chance at getting the heirloom? One flip or two?
Exactly the same logic used in my argument before. That's how probability works.
That's how probability works over multiple independent events. This is basic stuff guys. I am surprised I am having to "show my work".
- DR
"Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75%"
How does that work?
How does chance change? If the probability of the outcome is same?
If I flip 10 times and get head 10 times do I get close to 100% chance of getting tails?
How many times do you have to flip heads to have 100% chance to get tails?
Does the coin suddenly start creating forcefield gravity towards tails side?
@damsonwhufndthis Do I stutter? It's not my fault you haven't studied probability.
2 flips. 4 outcomes. Each chance equally likely (after 2 flips).
HH - 25%
HT - 25%
TH - 25%
TT - 25%
3 of the 4 outcomes (with equal outcomes) have at least one heads. If we assume the coin is fair then they will each have a equal or probable outcome. 25%. 3 of them have heads. Therefore 75% OVER TWO FLIPS. It's really really really simple.
So if you flip a coin twice, in 75% of the cases, you should see at least one heads. I am not sure how this is a challenging concept.
You said: "How many times do you have to flip heads to have 100% chance to get tails?"
You don't. That's ridiculous. It just shows you literally don't know what you are talking about.
My original post on this topic is just being proven over and over again with this discussion.
Anyway, I'm done. Believe what you want. I've shown my work. Nobody else has shown anything other than arm waving arguments.
- DR
@RockDokRockwhere does the 75% chance come from again?
In a chance of 50/50, where does 75% chance come from?
@damsonwhufndthis Fully explained above. Over 2 flips. I've explained it several times now. If you can't grasp it I can't help you, sorry.
You are focusing on individual events. Not a collection of independent events.
- DR
Community Manager
