@MandatoryIDtag There is no accumulation. This is how probability works over multiple independent events.
I completely agree that as a single event each one has a 0.5% of working out for you. My calculations are based on that.
AS I said with the coin flipping. Do you have a better chance at hitting a Heads over 1 or 2 flips? It should be self explanatory and, yes, each "flip" has the same chance. The outcome of the first flip has zero bearing on the second nor does it change it's likely outcome. If you are unlucky with the first flip then you have a 50/50 chance with your second flip... NOTE that at that point it's a single independent event (not 2). If you calculate it using 2 independent event (having two flips) you can see the difference. This in no way "stacks" or "accumulates" results. It is looking at the probabilities of the set of results over 2 events. Same what I did with the original 0.5% calculation. It's sound.
The original claim was it was about a 0.5% per pack of getting an heirloom. What I have done is shown you how that works down over many packs. It's that simple. This is how probability works.
To put it another way, out of the people who have opened 250 packs with these odds about 71.5% of them would have received at least one heirloom.
- DR
@RockDokRock without trying to sound rude,I'm not interested in this whole debate lol, just confirming the simplified response for anybody actually reading this and wondering how the system works. ^.^
@MandatoryIDtag Yet, here you are. I also find it interesting it's me you flag to point this out to and not the ones arguing my point.
Not sure what you expect. I made a claim I can backup and demonstrate yet people keep arguing and I'm not sure why.
Bottom line is chance is small. Deal with it, move on but as I stated originally most people have no idea how any of this works and probably think their chances are *far* better than they actually are.
I see this in FIFA all the time (but FIFA Is more of a P2W structure, that does not exist in Apex).
- DR
@RockDokRock I simply responded to you because you used @MandatoryIDtag. x.x
@MandatoryIDtag But it's Mandatory!
Reminds me of a great name I saw playing the other day (well, quite some time ago). His EA name was "Indecisive Jump Master", lol.
- DR
Community Manager
