"jonnydeathstar;c-1961697" wrote:
So in my example, 20% of 12 plays is 2, not 2.4. Over time, this leads to a significantly lower rate of return, because I'm eliminating partial units over the course of multiple plays, rather than at the end.
At the moment, my thinking is that this gives a more realistic projection of actual returns and much cheaper cost for certainty.
You are choosing to make a math error so no wonder you’re getting the wrong answer.
You won’t always get two. You’ll have horrible drops, and amazing drops, but it will average out to 2.4 per 12 sims. NOT 2.
If the question is, ‘should I do 100 refreshes on double drop days’ then it’s such a high price for a small sample size. That is a legitimate concern. If the question is, “should I farm gear for 50 crystals or save up and buy it, then unquestionably you WILL have a large enough sample size over weeks and months and beyond that it will average out to 20% and it WILL be a better return on investment. It’s not an insignificant amount you’re rounding off when it will be multiplied by thousands upon thousands of times. You are fudging the numbers by doing that.
Irrelevant anecdote: I spent 3x100 refreshes today and got 16 kyrotechs. That’s 18.75 crystals each. To buy 25 for 700 out of shipments is 28 crystals a piece. I’ll take that savings thanks. And my drop rates weren’t anomalous. 8/36 (which is what I got before double drops) is only 22%.
