"JacenRoe;c-1961712" wrote:
"jonnydeathstar;c-1961697" wrote:
So in my example, 20% of 12 plays is 2, not 2.4. Over time, this leads to a significantly lower rate of return, because I'm eliminating partial units over the course of multiple plays, rather than at the end.
At the moment, my thinking is that this gives a more realistic projection of actual returns and much cheaper cost for certainty.
You are choosing to make a math error so no wonder you’re getting the wrong answer.
You won’t always get two. You’ll have horrible drops, and amazing drops, but it will average out to 2.4 per 12 sims. NOT 2.
If the question is, ‘should I do 100 refreshes on double drop days’ then it’s such a high price for a small sample size. That is a legitimate concern. If the question is, “should I farm gear for 50 crystals or save up and buy it, then unquestionably you WILL have a large enough sample size over weeks and months and beyond that it will average out to 20% and it WILL be a better return on investment. It’s not an insignificant amount you’re rounding off when it will be multiplied by thousands upon thousands of times. You are fudging the numbers by doing that.
Thanks for the response. I think it's a little rough to say that I'm "choosing to make a math error" - it implies that I knew the right answer to start with. I don't (or didn't, when I first posted), which is why I'm working my way through the problem. But I do appreciate the help, and I see where I'm going wrong.
Up until the last week or so (since unlocking Darth Revan) I haven't had felt like I could afford using my 50c refreshes for gear every day. So, I started out working this problem with the first question: ‘should I do 100 refreshes on double drop days’. It didn't seem to make sense to me.
But I do see and understand where, over several thousand plays you will average out your returns and you can't just chop off .4 of a piece for every 12 plays. In that context - which is probably the better question than what I originally asked - it makes sense and the math backs it up.
"JacenRoe;c-1961712" wrote:
Irrelevant anecdote: I spent 3x100 refreshes today and got 16 kyrotechs. That’s 18.75 crystals each. To buy 25 for 700 out of shipments is 28 crystals a piece. I’ll take that savings thanks. And my drop rates weren’t anomalous. 8/36 (which is what I got before double drops) is only 22%.
Nice! You gambled and won - kudos. I got 12 G13 finishers for 12 plays on one of my refreshes. I felt pretty good about that.
Capital Games Team
