About these bonus drops...
I'm guessing they don't have a 30% drop rate like a regular hard node? 8 runs and zero bonus shards.... The chances of that are 0.019% or 0.00019 (70% chance of not getting one, 24 times) Come o...
Forum Discussion
"Jeric;c-1541157" wrote:"Mahbrethir;c-1541104" wrote:
AHAHAH no.
You all don't understand how this works. 8 runs, 3 possible shards per run, 24 attempts if you will, with a supposed 30% drop rate.
These are assumptions, but I didn't need to draw any conclusions, I stated a mathematical fact. The chances of that happening are roughly 0.02%. (a 1 in 5000 chance, so who knows) I'm not making a judgement, I'm stating a mathematical answer to an easy problem.
A possible conclusion is that the rates are not 30%.
As far as goes "32 runs I got 6 shards" that's six of 96 possible (bonus) shards, so roughly 6%, if you're including the shards you should have gotten from the node itself, your numbers are even lower.
Your last paragraph shows you may not understand how statistics works. To calculate P(x) you would need to know if all rewards are dependent or independent. It's a different formula depending ... just saying.
I think you're misinterpreting what I'm trying to say. I'm not trying to determine the drop rate. I'm trying to show the drop rate that devs have stated is not correct, they have adamantly stated that drop rates are independent of anything, and there are no changes in drop rates based on the way you run the node (2 or 3 attempts or 8 all at once, or changes in drop rates leading up to events)
My assumptions are likely wrong. I assume they're wrong, that's the whole point. I'm assuming that the bonus drops each have a 30% independent chance of dropping, I'm assuming what the devs said is the truth.
If that's the case, it's matter of mathematical fact to say: the chances of getting zero bonus shards on 8 runs is 0.02% one fiftieth of one percent. So.... therefore it's highly likely that my assumptions were incorrect, and in the drop rates for these bonus shards are not as the devs stated.
In regard to, "my last paragraph." I was correcting the earlier statement that implied he got '18ish' (6/32) percent of the total possible shards, to which I replied, that it was actually 6% (6/96) of the possible bonus. I wasn't making a probability calculation based on that, I was simply correcting the ratio of successes/attempts he stated before.
