About these bonus drops...

I got 8 on a SIM of 8 so the drop rate is 100% it was all shard shop currency though

I'll say it nice and slow to ward off future posts about sample size.....

I'm not calculating a drop rate.

I'm using the stated drop rate by the devs, and calculating the chance of a given result. That's an easy math problem, what's the chance of a flipping a coin and getting X amount of heads, what's the chance of drawing two cards from a deck and they're both aces, etc. You don't need sample sizes because I'm not proposing a new rate.

A coin flip is fifty fifty.... What's the chance of getting a heads after one flip? 50%... that's a fact.

Per the devs, what's the chance of getting a shard from a hardnode? 30%, that's a fact. What's the chance of getting none from 24 attempts? 0.02% and that's a fact.

I'm not saying what the drop rate is..... so stop talking about sample size...

I agree, the drop rate is way below 30%. I used 3 refresh everyday during the event and barely got 20 bonus shards in the end. Same with guild event tokens, 3 refresh every day and got less than 400 tokens in the end... Double drop would have been so much nicer than this.

for a game with say (assuming) 100,000 active players, about 20 should get that. Your math checks out, but its very possible you ve just been very, very unlucky

This is simply not how "odds" work.

I think the drop rates were low for a different reason. Each hard node effectively had odds on dropping 4 possible character shards (sometimes 5 if it had a ship on the node) and the drop rates were the same. So I think the coding went something like this (30% chance for a bonus shard to drop, then equal chance to receiving 1 of the 3 bonus characters). If that's the case, the coding was lame. In lieu of double drops, the least they could have done was provide a 30% chance for each bonus shard to drop. Not once did I get a bonus shard for 2 separate characters.

I did.

Yesterday I did 6 sims and got:

3 Lobot (don't laugh)
6 Holdo
2 Fulcrum

6 sims, 7 drops. Or more accurately, 6 sims, 11 shards. Pretty darn good.

"TVF;c-1543717" wrote:
I did.

Yesterday I did 6 sims and got:

3 Lobot (don't laugh)
6 Holdo
2 Fulcrum

6 sims, 7 drops. Or more accurately, 6 sims, 11 shards. Pretty darn good.

ugh, I have the worst luck in this game.

I had one run where I received bonus shards for all 3, so it appears I can confirm it’s not an either/or situation.

Also, where did they state the 30% drop rate? I know that’s what they’ve stated for normal hard node drops, but I never saw them state that for bonus shards.

If I had to guess I would bet the bonus shard drop was something more like 10% per character, for a total of 30% bonus drop chance.

Under that assumption, your first example of zero drops on 8 runs (.7^8) 0.058 or 5.8% or 1 in ~17 attempts. That certainly seems reasonable to me, and anecdotally seems to match what I experienced.

This thread is what happens when people who don't understand probability think that they understand probability.

You complain about the drop rate and then say you are not discussing drop rate. Ok then.

The simple truth is that you do not know how the bonus drops were implemented, none of us do, so all we can do is draw upon empirical evidence. For you, it would seem bonus drops are impossible. Bummer, dude. Well, that's probability for you.

"Rebel_yell;c-1543733" wrote:

"TVF;c-1543717" wrote:
I did.

Yesterday I did 6 sims and got:

3 Lobot (don't laugh)
6 Holdo
2 Fulcrum

6 sims, 7 drops. Or more accurately, 6 sims, 11 shards. Pretty darn good.

ugh, I have the worst luck in this game.

Well I also had plenty of terrible drops.

Which is the point. You can't say your luck is terrible any more than mine is awesome. It evens out.