I had 60ish cantina energy and i just refreshed it twice for a 12 cantina aayla secura node. Out of those 2 refreshes and the 60sih energy I already i had I didn't get a single shard. Is it bad luck ?...
It's also worth noting that several people and entire guilds have carefully tracked the data for character shard drop rates. They are 33% over any significant sample size. This is yrue regardless of node, energy type, whether or not you sim 1, 3 or 15 at a time - even without regard to double drops being active.
Rest assured that tyrought the 22 months, whenever character shard drop rates are tracked, they have always been right around 33%.
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