Its not supposed to be 50/50 in the way you think. Its 50/50 over a single coin flip- your results show it is working as intended in that the result of each flip is not influenced by the results of previous flips.
The issue here is that you are making an incorrect assumption as to what 50/50 means / do not understand basic probability theory.
I think you’re being a little harsh suggesting OP doesn’t understand basic probability theory. After all, they’re not like the other guy who claims RNG is broken because he doesn’t win 2 or 3 out of 5 coin flips every single day.
Someone who has recorded winning 8/44 coin flips is entitled to ask if something is going on. After all, the probability of 8 (or less) successes out of 44 coin flips is around 0.001%.
That said, I’d be grateful ifAshur_Noah could confirm that their data is from mirror matches, where both he and his opponent have identical fleets with identical speed stats. Recording so few successes suggests to me that the data is for all fleet matches, even those where his fleet is facing a different fleet that has much higher speed values.
I do understand basic probability theory, statistics was an integral part of my Economics degree. I know it's theoretically possible to get 100 heads in a row and that each coin flip is independent of those before it.
Anyway, all the results above are mirror matches, my Piett is R8, Executor 192 speed, I can't swear that the 44 results above are all against 192 Executors although I do my best to avoid battles with R9 Pietts'. I'm going to record these more accurately going forward.
Today I was 1 of 3 against other 192 Executors, I did find someone with a 191 Executor and obviously I went first.
I'm just going to have to get my Piett up to R9.
Thank you for the replies, I do understand it better now.
Except you're getting confuse I think.
If anyone one turn is 50/50 (it's not), then sure, at any point in time any individual flip is 50/50. However, the probability that you go first 0/10 times should be equal to getting 10/10. It flat out is not.
It's exceedingly low probability to go 0/10. Yet, i'd wager most people have seen that. I'd wager extremely few have seen 10/10.
After the tie dagger switch, i counted mine the first 10 days. I hit about 15% of going first. That's not a 50/50 chance. To date, you can't find that it's 'balanced out' either.
Did you actually check that your speed and the speed of the opposing cap ships are the same?
Being revan is all 6 dot mods, no one can be faster in a mirror
“About 15%”
Estimated data is not data.
Capital Games Team
