Fleet challenge Omega and Zeta Material probabilities

Everyone wants to be able to forecast their zeta material tokens in order to estimate the amount of time it will take to get those 20 zeta tokens. We can get them from irregular events (unpredicatable) and also buy them from the fleet arena store (quite predictable). That leaves us with the Fleet Challenges for ship ability materials which is quite regular but for unpredictable amounts.

A year ago I started to record my omega and zeta material wins from the Fleet Challenges and recorded each one with the exception of three separate fortnights of results. The following analysis is based on this data only.

The full analysis: https://rpubs.com/Oberon/zeta_probs

The tl;dr version: https://rpubs.com/Oberon/zeta_probs_tldr

The super-short here and now tl;dr:

Table 1: Summary of Zeta and Omega wins to date
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Statistic               N  Mean  St. Dev. Min Max
-------------------------------------------------
Ability Material Omega 287 0.254  0.530    0   2 
Ability Material Zeta  287 0.641  0.669    0   2 
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Table 4: Number of weeks predicted to get 20 Zetas or Omegas
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      Best case Average Worst case
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Omega    7.3      13       21.5   
Zeta     3.2      5.2       8     
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Table 5: Number of Zetas/Omegas predicted for four weeks
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      Best case Average Worst case
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Omega    13       6.1       1     
Zeta     24      15.5       8     
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YMMV. Comments welcome.