Galactic Chase-Emperor's Shuttle [MEGA]

"chionophile;c-1768469" wrote:

It doesn't matter which node you farm. That's why they set the drop rates the way they did. No matter which energy node you pick, you should get about the same number of shards.

Actually, yes it will. Since the probability for each node is tied to the amount of energy used, the "expectation value" (or average amount) of the number of shards per energy will be the same, but the probability of successfully earning a given amount of shards will in fact vary with which node you choose. Since lower-energy nodes have lower probability of success, the spread in the probability density is larger.

To give a concrete example, if one spends 100 crystals on fleet energy every day for 5 days, they have a total of 285 * 5 = 1425 fleet energy to spend during the event (I'm assuming 5 days, since that was what the moderator, Pyrefly said). Depending on which node you do, you'll have a different number of attempts: 178 for 8-energy nodes; 142 for 10-energy nodes; 89 for 16-energy nodes; and 71 for 20-energy nodes. To get the probability of successfully getting 50 (or more) blueprints (assuming a 3-star unlock), one can use a binomial distribution function with the given probability of success. My calculations indicate this:

Probability of 50+ shards with 100 crystals spent over 5 days using ONLY:

8-energy nodes: 88.6%
10-energy nodes: 89.5%
16-energy nodes: 94.9%
20-energy nodes: 98.1%

So, the short answer is: Go for the 20-energy nodes. It's more of a sure thing.

Incidentally, the probability of unlocking at 3-star without spending crystals is astronomically low (few thousand to 1), and impossible if doing 20-energy nodes (unless you've stockpiled energy in advance).