The system is designed very poorly. A lot of matchups might as well be totally random, but lol at people thinking they have "the system" all figured out and think "the system is designed for X outcome" and "what matters is whether you win or lose."
Lol nothing matters. There's no point whaling because there's always a bigger fish and the flaws in the skill rating system mean that you could get matched against darn near anyone. It's liberating really, because you can go back to hoarding or whatever and don't even have to worry about squad arena meta anymore. Just try to get to the highest division/league you can chill in, and play casually.