MK 12 Medpac

"Taldek;c-2310519" wrote:
What I’m trying to say is that I don’t understand how the game works. What are the rules that govern the game?

Thank you to everyone who has posted and for your results. 200 sims of a single node in a couple of days seems unrealistic for the average player but maybe I’m way below average. And I apologize if I use various terminology incorrectly but I hope you’ll understand what I’m trying to say.

Has CG posted anywhere explaining how gear, character, and ship shards are payed out?

Is it a Fixed Probability (or odds or % chance or whatever the correct term is)? Where they enter an attribute of say “20% Chance Per Sim” and that never changes. In this scenario the number of sims you do or the sample size are irrelevant since probability and outcome are two totally different things. The probability will always be 20% every time you sim regardless of what you actually receive.

Is it a Progressive Probability where the game tracks how many sims you run of a node in a given time period. And with each sim you do the probability then increases. Starting at say 0.2% and then 0.4% and then 0.6% etc. In this scenario the sample size matters greatly as you will have reduced drops in the bottom 50% and increased drops in the top 50%. And as stated by others, the closer you get to the sample size the more it will average out. If this is the case we need to know what the defined sample size and time period is to maximize our payouts.

Is it a Class Based Probability where players are put into classes based on how much money they spend in a given time period. We’ll say there’s just four classes. Class A = Whales and Class D = Free to Play. So Class A gets 25%, Class B gets 20%, Class C gets 15%, and Class D gets 10%. In this scenario it could be fixed or progressive but either way community observations don’t really matter unless you’re in that player’s class. And of course players who spend more money are more likely to track their payout results skewing the community observations.

Or is it some other scenario?

As for my original post I was trying to find out if it was worth continuing to sim. I assumed a fixed probability and if it’s set at 20% then I was just having a string of bad luck (which continued for another 25+ sims until I finally got one medpac) I can completely accept that it was just bad luck. But if it’s set at only 1% then I’d be better off buying from a store than continuing to waste energy.

Of course there is also the possibility that this gear piece is/was affected by an update with some weird bug for some bizarre reason but without knowing how CG has actually programmed the payouts how can I know to ask them to check?

So has Capital Games (or E.A.) ever posted/ published how the payouts work? If yes, can someone please direct me where to find it?

If No, could Capital Games post how they work and what the probability or % chance is for each gear, character, and ship etc?

I would think that different gear pieces (as well as characters and ships) are going to have different probabilities. It would be greatly appreciated to know how they are actually programmed.

Thanks

You have a lack of understanding of basic probability. 20% over a large sample size, simply means you need a large sample to ensure the result. At 100 sims you should get close to 20, but at 1000 you will get even closer to the 20%. Past rolls and future rolls do not have any bearing, as you seem to be eluding to.

You can draw virtually no conclusions by observing just a few sims. All anyone is telling you is that, over time, you can expect about 20% drops.