While everything you say makes sense, newcomers into the top 10/20 will have 0 clue about everyones payouts. Theyll just pick a team they can beat and keep climbing. If your team is weak you get hit. Simple really.
To actually figure payouts out, you need to have at least a good understanding of timezones, and geography. Then you gotta observe when people start making their climb for first. Then you gotta add the 2 together and guess which timezone theyre playing in. This can take weeks or months, and the thing is you actually gotta be in the top 10 too to figure this out, cause if you arent, you really wont give 2 fucks about anyones payout. Anyone past like 20th is a bloodbath too since it isnt always the same like 5-10 people moving each other up&down, but instead like 20-30 people moving.
For my shard the busiest times are the europeans, asians, the two timezone that has like 10 different countries in it or something, then americans east/west coast. This should be true for most shards.
If you so happen to live in one of the 4 most active payouts.. then youre gonna be hitting someone close to payout 100%. Cant be avoided.
Yes there are some dickheads that fight for top 5 almost 24 hrs a day, and honestly those guys pretty much ask for a beating sometimes. But that's if you can drop an equal amount of crystals or your shardchat is in the same boat as you.
