Shard drop rate is toooooo low :(

"GegeGerard24;c-2393950" wrote:

"DarjeloSalas;c-2393942" wrote:

"GegeGerard24;c-2393937" wrote:

"DarjeloSalas;c-2393931" wrote:

Are you trolling?

Hundreds of players contributed to these studies. Do you genuinely believe they all got 0/5 then after refreshing got lots of shards?

I know for a fact TVF doesn’t always get 0/5 before refreshing, and I know that’s not what happens to me either. Or you. It might happen occasionally, but it’s madness to draw a conclusion off such scant evidence.

Come back in a week and tell me you are still getting 0/5 on all of your farming attempts. I’ll take screenshots of my 2 active farms as well.

Lol...this is not a matter of "always" or "not always"...
Of course its not...lol...

It is the matter of the frequency...

Ive had 3 nodes yesterday ALONE (and ypu are talking about in a week...lol) which produced (0/5), see previous post (with screenshot) please, b4 judging me anything...lol...

How many data are we talking about? Thousands?...millions?

Lets say...1000 datas alone...
It means i need 1000 days to get close to 330 shards (33%), right? (Since i dont refresh, i stick to only 5 allowed hard battles everyday)

The ones who refresh 4 times a day can get that amount in only 250 days...

You see right? The one who dont refresh gets those 67% of (0/5) in 670 days!
No wonder right, if i get that often?

Or you dont see that?

No, I don’t see that.

I have a degree in Mathematics though, so I do see several issues with your figures.

1) you do not need 1000 days. You need around 1000 attempts (assuming you’re farming someone that isn’t accelerated ie dropping 2 shards per hit). If you’re doing 5 a day that’ll take roughly 200 days.

2) people refreshing 4 times a day (I don’t do that, I rarely go past 2 refreshes a day or 15 attempts) STILL need around 1000 attempts to get 330 shards. But because they’re doing 25 attempts per day it’ll take them around 40 days (it takes me around 67 days).

3) I have absolutely no idea what you’re taking about with 67% in 670 days. Your other numbers are wrong but I can at least see where they came from. I’m at a loss for these.

Yes...it is because i was talking about (0/5) as AN attempt, not as 5 individual attempts.

(0/5) = 0 success attempt in 5 allowed hard battles per day per char.
Success = score some shards.

Having said that, there are 6 samples now.
(0/5) none is successful
(1/5) 1 out of 5 is successful
(2/5) 2 out of 5 are successful
(3/5) 3 out of 5 are successful
(4/5) 4 out of 5 are successful
(5/5) all is successful

The known success rate = 33%

It means >>> the Probability of (1/5) + P(2/5) + P(3/5) + P(4/5) + P(5/5) = 33%
And the probability of (0/5) = 67%

As a F2P player who never refreshes the node (i stick to only 5 allowed hard battles per day), for 1000 such datas/samples, i need 1000 days.

Hence...670 days of failure for EACH char <<< from 67% x 1000 days..................(*)

=====

Ok, one may not see it and say "the attempt is individual and not 5 colective attempts"...

This is the prove that they are the same...

In individual attempt, there are only 2 samples.
(0/1) not getting any shard = 67%
(1/1) get so e shard = 33%

As you have pointed out that to obtain 1000 such datas/attempts, one needs only 200 days.

So...
The days of failure >>> 67% x 200 days = 134 days.

BUT if we want to enlarge such datas/attempts 5 times, it means we do it 1000 days, not 200 days, we will get 670 days of failure <<< from 5 x 134 days...................(**)

Now, compare (*) and (**).
They are the same, are they not?

"DarjeloSalas;c-2393942" wrote:

No, I don’t see that.

3) I have absolutely no idea what you’re taking about with 67% in 670 days. Your other numbers are wrong but I can at least see where they came from. I’m at a loss for these.

What are you trying to say here?
That i am simple/stupid so no wonder that came out of you?

You didnt see it, you had to ask for explanation, yet you call yourself mathematician (i HAVE a degree in math)...

This is a public forum. Your opinion is not the most correct one. Unless you are one of the programmers or GOD HIMSELF.

Next time, try not to belittle any1 by bragging your degree and your coded msg ("i know where it came from").

I’m not close to any degree in maths and didn’t get any of that.

But i know this: if you have 33% to get a shard on a hard node, you would need about 330/33%=1,000 battles to 7* a character from zero. Considering 5 battles per day on a hard node, that’s 1000/5=200 days, 100 days for an accelerated character with 2 shards per drop.
You just have to write down when you start farming a character and when you finish it.

See you in 200 days with your conclusion ?