Shard drop rate is toooooo low :(

"DarjeloSalas;c-2393942" wrote:

No, I don’t see that.

I have a degree in Mathematics though, so I do see several issues with your figures.

1) you do not need 1000 days. You need around 1000 attempts (assuming you’re farming someone that isn’t accelerated ie dropping 2 shards per hit). If you’re doing 5 a day that’ll take roughly 200 days.

2) people refreshing 4 times a day (I don’t do that, I rarely go past 2 refreshes a day or 15 attempts) STILL need around 1000 attempts to get 330 shards. But because they’re doing 25 attempts per day it’ll take them around 40 days (it takes me around 67 days).

3) I have absolutely no idea what you’re taking about with 67% in 670 days. Your other numbers are wrong but I can at least see where they came from. I’m at a loss for these.

NOTE: i had to rewite this, because when i had edited the origjnal post, suddenly it disappeared.

Yes, because i was talking about (0/5) as AN attempt, not as 5 individual attempts.

Having said that, there are now 6 samples.
(0/5) = none is successful. Gets 0 shards in 5 attempts.
(1/5) = 1 attempts out of 5 scores some shards.
(2/5) = 2 attempts out of 5 scores some shards.
(3/5) = 3 attempts out of 5 scores some shards.
(4/5) = 4 attempts out of 5 scores some shards.
(5/5) = all attempts are successful. All attempts give some shards.

Known success probability = 33%
Success = scores some shards.

So the success probability = the probability of (1/5) + (2/5) + (3/5) + (4/5) + (5/5) = 33%
AND the probability of (0/5) = 67%

As a F2P player who never refreshes his node (i stick to only 5 allowed hard battles per day), for 1000 such datas/attempts, i need 1000 days.

So, the total days that i am not successful = 67% x 1000 days = 670 days....................(*)

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For the individual attempts, there are only 2 samples.
(0/1) failed attempt = scores no shards.
(1/1) success attempt = scores some shards.

Success probability = 33%
Fail probability = 67%

As you have pointed out, to have 1000 such datas/attempts, one needs 200days.

So, the total days of failure = 67% x 200 days = 134 days.

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Ok, one may not see it and says "the attempt should be individual and not 5 collective attempts."

This is the prove that they are the same.

So, in individual attempt, an F2P player has 134 days of failure.

BUT what if we want to enlarge such data 5 times.
We dont want to play only 200 days, we want to play 1000 days.

It means the day of failure = 670 days <<< from 5 x 134 days = 670 days.................(**)

Now compare (*) and (**). They are the same, are they not?

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"DarjeloSalas;c-2393942" wrote:

No, I don’t see that.

I have a degree in Mathematics though, so I do see several issues with your figures.

3) I have absolutely no idea what you’re taking about with 67% in 670 days. Your other numbers are wrong but I can at least see where they came from. I’m at a loss for these.

What are you trying to say here?
That i am simple and stupid so no wonder that came out of me?

You didnt see it, you asked for explanation, yet you call yourself mathematician (i have a degree in math).

This is a public forum. Your opinion is not the most correct one, unless you are one of the programmers or GOD HIMSELF.

Next time, try to not bellittle any1 by bragging about your degree and your coded msg (i know where it came from).