Shard drop rate is toooooo low :(
I get often 0 shard out of 5 allowed hard battles per day. Even at this double drop during the game birthday. <<< almost as if the game wants only to troll us...you can have double drops, but the dro...
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The mistake was transferring the 33% drop rate to the success of the full set.
I don’t know if you were going with the chance to roll at least one success out of five, which would be 33%; but the inverse of that would be the chance to roll at least one failure out of five, which would be 67%. So the chance of rolling 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 out of 5 is 33% technically, but the 67% inverse is the chance to roll 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 out of 5. Not just roll a 0 out of 5.
The chance to roll 0 out of 5 is the chance on a single roll (67%) carried to the power of the number of rolls. So 0.67 x 0.67 x 0.67 x 0.67 x 0.67, or (0.67)^5, or approximately 13.5%.
I don’t know if you were going with the chance to roll at least one success out of five, which would be 33%; but the inverse of that would be the chance to roll at least one failure out of five, which would be 67%. So the chance of rolling 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 out of 5 is 33% technically, but the 67% inverse is the chance to roll 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 out of 5. Not just roll a 0 out of 5.
The chance to roll 0 out of 5 is the chance on a single roll (67%) carried to the power of the number of rolls. So 0.67 x 0.67 x 0.67 x 0.67 x 0.67, or (0.67)^5, or approximately 13.5%.
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