Forum Discussion
7 years ago
5% for omegas and 15% for reinforcements sounds right on paper. It doesn't quite feel right with what I experience, but then experiences are prone to confirmation bias.
Like, with a 5% drop rate, if I get 1 from 40 sims, I'm going to feel like the rate is way off--but, really, I'm only off by one. If sim number 41 gave me a second omega, I would be right within the expected return.
The lower the odds of an outcome, the more subjective that outcome becomes.
Like, with a 5% drop rate, if I get 1 from 40 sims, I'm going to feel like the rate is way off--but, really, I'm only off by one. If sim number 41 gave me a second omega, I would be right within the expected return.
The lower the odds of an outcome, the more subjective that outcome becomes.
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