So I tracked 2,000 drops
The purpose was to get an idea of their model and figure out what was the best way to obtain the infinite amount of gear required. It wasn't really to find out what their exact "drop rate" is. If y...
Forum Discussion
"Kal_Sarkon;892326" wrote:
Between Sneeky, DarkChaplain, and myself we have over 1000 samples. Although there is still uncertainty in the average, the odds that we would see a 6% difference in drop rate given the sample size we have is quite low (<2%). That's enough for me to go forward on the premise that there is a real difference in drop rates. What is causing that, I can't say. A consistently biased RNG would be low on my possibilities list, but can't be ruled out. I did look at my data for evidence of non-random behavior--comparing early data to later data, looking for increased or decrease odds in runs following a successful run. But everything looks strictly random.
Kal Sarkon
I'll need more to know whether your subgroup analysis is valid. A priori, I would say that it probably isn't, but you have more data than I do.
For myself, I noticed a considerably lower droprate of TFP shards than of Wedge, Lando or GS shards, but chalked it up to psychology (I didn't record droprate) and maybe RNGesus not liking me farming TFP, but assumed the underlying mechanism and droprate was the same. It is not necessarily so; just easier to program.
However there are things that could be used such as the number of other people also farming the toon at the time, to adjust the droprate, which would be rather devious. If that's the case, it'll be very hard to figure out, if at all possible.
