Tie Dagger daily refreshes

"DarjeloSalas;c-2424514" wrote:

"Notthatguyfrombefore;c-2424510" wrote:

"DarjeloSalas;c-2424498" wrote:

"Notthatguyfrombefore;c-2424497" wrote:
Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.

The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.

3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.

I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.

I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.

Speaking of how stats work, it’s a little early to decry your drops. You could easily get above 3% by the end of tomorrow.

Not necessarily. Assuming a Poissonian distribution (which seems most appropriate for this combination of probability and trials) having this drop rate puts me in the bottom 10%. Obviously it can improve, but at the end of the day there’s a fair probability people will end up with less than the average. I’m not actually that annoyed about it, more of an inconvenience.