I've seen several complaints about the vet shard rates and heard people with various experience. I've compiled some data that shines some light on my personal experience with the "numbers".For Vet Chewie Shards Received: 178 Attempts: 488 Drop Rate: 36.48%For Vet Han Shards Received: 150 Attempts: 503 Drop Rate: 29.82%Given this data, I suppose you can come to the conclusion that the drop rate is 33% +/- 3% or roughly thereabout. Does this seem fair? I dunno, I'd personally like Han to float more toward 33% since I was at 26% around 250 samples. Either way, you should be able to apply this to your estimates to see how far away you are in both a good and bad scenario.Anyway, just thought this would be interesting in light of the current impending JTR event :sweat_smile: --Osake

"TVF;c-1575700" wrote:In the neighborhood of 33% seems to be the accepted rate (non-tinfoil-hat category) based on a bunch of previously tracked data. You're right in that range.People will still claim the drop rate is terrible though.I think this is the case because you get 7 or 8 sims per cantina energy refresh, because when you get 2 or 3 shards per refresh people tend to see it as bad forggeting they simed only 7 or 8 battles

For those of you who don't want to do the math, the OP's actual drop rate is 33.1%. Total shards: 328. Total Attempts: 991. 500 is a good sample size. 1000 is better.

Nice work. And yes it holds true to approximate 33% drop that is claimed so that is nice to see.Hopefully people that have been around since she launched will be ready this time. More JTRs equal better chances to complete Sith Heroic. And I think we all agree that that would be good for guilds and the game.

In the neighborhood of 33% seems to be the accepted rate (non-tinfoil-hat category) based on a bunch of previously tracked data. You're right in that range.People will still claim the drop rate is terrible though.

I must have crap luck then... I've had so many runs with no shards for the vets it's ridiculous.

Vet Han vs Vet Chewie Shard Stats

14 Replies

tward930
New Spectator
7 years ago
Nice work. And yes it holds true to approximate 33% drop that is claimed so that is nice to see.

Hopefully people that have been around since she launched will be ready this time. More JTRs equal better chances to complete Sith Heroic. And I think we all agree that that would be good for guilds and the game.
tvsfrink
7 years ago
In the neighborhood of 33% seems to be the accepted rate (non-tinfoil-hat category) based on a bunch of previously tracked data. You're right in that range.

People will still claim the drop rate is terrible though.
Sacull_Kinslaye
7 years ago
I must have crap luck then... I've had so many runs with no shards for the vets it's ridiculous.
MisterScarllet
7 years ago
"TVF;c-1575700" wrote:
In the neighborhood of 33% seems to be the accepted rate (non-tinfoil-hat category) based on a bunch of previously tracked data. You're right in that range.

People will still claim the drop rate is terrible though.

I think this is the case because you get 7 or 8 sims per cantina energy refresh, because when you get 2 or 3 shards per refresh people tend to see it as bad forggeting they simed only 7 or 8 battles
tvsfrink
7 years ago
"Sacull_Kinslayer;c-1575703" wrote:
I must have **** luck then... I've had so many runs with no shards for the vets it's ridiculous.

And no runs at all with a great drop rate?

Sure I'd hit 0/15 too. Then I'd hit an 8/15, which works out to 27%.

We typically only remember the bad runs.
jaysindolatta
7 years ago
Just seems so much worse. Han wasn't too bad but chewie seemed to take forever....
NicWester
7 years ago
Sounds legit. It’s within the margin of error and has a good sample size.
NicWester
7 years ago
"TVF;c-1575709" wrote:
"Sacull_Kinslayer;c-1575703" wrote:
I must have **** luck then... I've had so many runs with no shards for the vets it's ridiculous.

And no runs at all with a great drop rate?

Sure I'd hit 0/15 too. Then I'd hit an 8/15, which works out to 27%.

We typically only remember the bad runs.

That’s a point I try to make a lot, but I’m bad at math and can’t get the numbers right. But folks think of success as being 50/50, even though they know better. So when they get 0/10 they’re mad, but 4/10 is a rarer occurance.

I think. Maybe. As I said, math isn’t my strong suit.
chionophobe
7 years ago
For those of you who don't want to do the math, the OP's actual drop rate is 33.1%. Total shards: 328. Total Attempts: 991. 500 is a good sample size. 1000 is better.
Player_js3t46np
7 years ago
I finished Chewie like 5 shards before Han... Almost perfect