"Mageduckey;781422" wrote:
If you started at top 100, and steadily drop (since you won't be getting half the blueprints/shards that someone staying in top 100 could get), I could see you getting the following payouts:
- 7 days 51-100 = 7 * 1250 = 8750
- 14 days 101-200 = 14 * 1200 = 16800
- 21 days 201-500 = 21 * 1000 = 21000
- 7 days 501+ = 7 * 800 = 5600
- 49 days daily activity = 49 * 100(I think this is what it is...it's close to this, anyway) = 4900
- Total: 57,050 / 2000 = 28.5 zetas
Okay, first, I want to say I appreciate that you took the time to respond with math and actually think about this instead of just assert your opinion as fact.
I have two disputes with this math. First, you're assuming that a single * difference will make a player drop at *least* 400 (!) ranks in fleet arena. That seems rather extreme to me (of course I could eat my words here and drop even farther, making my situation even worse). Second, you don't bother to acknowledge that for a significant portion of the time, the zeta rusher will have ships at the same * count. For example, when going from 4-5, the ship rusher may be 60 blueprints ahead, but a ship at 0/65 and a ship at 60/65 are the exact same stats.
"Mageduckey;781422" wrote:
I vote we go for 25% because I think it's a decent compromise (though who knows what zeta drop rate really is). In that case, 44 days after the initial 49 days, both sides will have 46 zetas (just plugged 44 into the break-even equation). So, at 93 days after the launch of ships, both sides will have 2 zeta abilities unlocked (closer to like 85ish days, which we can use so long as it's recognized that a one week lead of 2 to 1 zeta abilities will not be significant).
Agreed.
"Mageduckey;781422" wrote:
However, after 93 days after launch, the player who pushed zetas from shipments will fall way behind.
Disagree strongly here. You're assuming (and I think this is a big assumption) that more than 2 zeta upgrades are going to be significantly useful. Right now there aren't that many that are even good, and some of them are on characters that have since fallen out of the meta (Rey, Phasma).
"Mageduckey;781422" wrote:
Another 3 months out from then (since this game is all about the long-game), going out another 87 days:
46 + 0.45(87) = 85 zetas 6 months after release of ships
46 + 0.675(87) + (3/7)(87) = 142 zetas 6 months after release of ships
Yes, if the player who only buys zeta mats can somehow get a competitive edge back and earn higher rewards, then sure, they would speed up a little. But 7 zeta abilities versus 4 is quite the difference, especially considering in 6 months they're likely to release more zeta abilities that we want to get.
Again, disagree, as there are only a handful of zeta upgrades that are useful. Also it seems like you neglect that the zeta rusher will eventually get to the challenges too, which I think you realized in your edit.
"Mageduckey;781422" wrote:
Since they are both operating at the same challenge drop rates, but the zeta challenge player gets more fleet tokens, the zeta shipment player will always be behind unless they can make some miraculous recoveries in fleet arena while simultaneously the zeta challenge player falls from grace and face plants on the bottom of fleet arena..
This is false. In the end both players will end up with 7* ships just the same and get the same fleet arena rank. If the zeta challenge player could upgrade their ships forever via fleet shipments you would be correct, but that's simply not the case.
So in conclusion, you're spending, by your own estimation, 60 days behind on zeta upgrades. If that makes the difference between placing 11-20 to 6-10 in arena every day, that's a net gain of 3000 crystals (and considering you made the claim that a player 1* behind would drop 400 ranks, this seems like a very fair comparison). That's also ignoring the potential gains from raiding and other aspects of the game.
Also, a significant risk you are taking is that the math doesn't change against you during that time. Yes, both strategies are vulnerable to long-term changes against them, but a short-term strategy will at least yield some gains - if something changes against you on day 60, you're just fucked.
"DropItLikeItHoth;781853" wrote:
If you are doing heroic tank raids, having a Zeta on Qui Gon a month early is not a disadvantage. I plan on earning my 1 full zeta and then focusing on fleet building after. All of the above math assumes you are farming Zeta exclusively in fleet for months on end. That's not the case. I want that first zeta and then I'll move to the more logical blueprint and DS character shard farming immediately after. I will only be a little bit behind. The rewards in the short term in arena and Heroic Tank raid will hopefully offset this.
Yes, this. The entire point of this strategy is to net that crucial first zeta upgrade and ride its advantage. At that point you can reexamine your options.
"unit900000;781799" wrote:
Farming zetas from shipments is extremely foolish unless you really don't care about ships other wise your just slowing your ship farming down by a lot.
I respect that you have an opinion, but until you present evidence or math, please don't confuse it with fact. See Mageduckey's post for a good example.
"Goride;781793" wrote:
You said it yourself, if you spend on ships to get the ability challenge, in 64 total days you get 29 extra challenge attempts at zeta mats vs 22 guaranteed zeta from buying them.
This math was proven false. The time window assumed any set of 8 5* ships is sufficient, but you need 5 DS ships. This means that the time to unlock challenges is even farther away, pushing the advantage towards rushing zeta mats.
"Goride;781793" wrote:
The drop rate of the challenge seems to be about 1 to 1 ratio. Some attempts you might get 2, sometimes you might get 0. But on average it seems to be 1 per attempt.
I think assuming an average of 1 per attempt is optimistic, but until more people do them that answer is vague. Of course, if it turns out that the average is even greater than 1, yes, the advantage tilts closer to ship rushing. I was originally being quite pessimistic and assuming an average of .3 mats per attempt.
"Goride;781793" wrote:
The only advantage of going for zetas only in FS is that in the first 34 days, you would acquire 22 zeta mats. So you would be able to have one full zeta ability one month earlier. However, expanding a bit further, if 34 days = 22 zeta when purchasing directly, then 68 days = 44 zeta, and 102 days = 66 zeta. If you spend on ships for the challenges you get 29 attempts per 34 days. So the first 34 days = 0 zeta. But after that, 68 days = 29 zeta, and 102 = 58 zeta. But this assumes one continues to spend on ships. Since the first example does not spend on ships, then we can also try assuming in the second example after unlocking the ability challenge, spending on ships is stopped. Therefore, during the first 34 days = 0 zetas. But after that 68 days = 29 zeta + 22 zeta, for a total of 51. 102 days = 58 zeta + 44 zeta, for a total of 102. Even at 68 days, 29 + 22 = 51 > 44 = 22 + 22.
Again, you do have that first zeta advantage. But after that, the advantage is lost, as in the last example one can get two zetas before the first example can get two.
But if ship rushing switches to zeta rushing, zeta rushing will catch up both on fleet arena rank and on doing the challenges. You'd have to compensate for that in your math, which you do not. Even still, these windows were proven false, so that's even longer the zeta rushing strategy will have zeta upgrades that ship rushing does not.
I'm working on redoing the math right now.
