Alright, let's look at how all of your feedback changes the math.
Rushing Zeta (RZ) vs Rushing Ships (RS)
Both strategies need the following:
5 5* DS ships
3 5* ships not in the above (LS and farmable from GW realistically)
Let's pick the best DS ships first. We have GS, GSpy, FOTF, ITF, Darth Maul, Boba Fett, Sun Fac. I only have GS at 7* with G10 and no shards besides the freebies for anyone else. That means GS, FOTF, ITF are the obvious choices, leaving 2 more. I'll count BF as a freebie since he's from Catina Shipments. You have 3 characters that are going to take up even more FS points, meaning we'll pick Sun Fac as he's the strongest character and only takes 50 shards compared to the 80 for the other two.
So our DS roster is: GSol / FOTF / ITF / BF / Sun Fac
Light side, let's spare as much currency as possible and go for: JC / Biggs / Wedge
(Ashoka and Poe are probably stronger ships but that means we'll need more shards)
For those 8 ships, we'll need 1160 blueprints. I'm fairly certain that this roster means that only BF's ship has to be gained exclusively from FS, but 1/8 isn't bad. This adds a tax of 14800 fleet points. And no, the argument that Slave I shows up less common isn't relevant - even if it only shows up once every two day (remember, we'd see 6 sets in that time, so its appearance rate would have to be around 2.5% for this to even be relevant) we would still complete the Slave I in plenty of time. I have:
GS: 25/145
FOTF: 15/145
ITF: 18/145
SF: 0/145
JC: 39/145
Biggs: 34/145
Wedge: 52/145
Total: 183 / 1015
In addition, we're going to need to unlock some characters. BF's Cantina Shipments, which we can spare if we neglect ship materials or energy for gear, and we're left with just trying to unlock Sun Fac for 50 shards. This adds a tax of 4000 fleet points. This brings our total fleet point tax up to 18800 fleet points.
GW: 1200 / day = 12 blueprints / day
FS: 1300 / day = 13 blueprints / day (R51-100 + daily rewards)
Other Energy: 1 blueprint / day (I think this is optimistic considering my drop rate, but ymmv)
RZ:
Let's cut down the income from the very start to 1200, to simulate the drop in rank. Remember, we're only going to have an inferior fleet part of the time - right when RS gets their upgrades. There's a significant portion of the time we're on par.
2000 * 20 / 1200 = 33 days to first zeta upgrade
18800 / 1200 = 16 days to pay off our fleet points tax
In the meantime, we've gotten:
49 * 13 = 637 blueprints and are now at 820/1015 of what we need. Let's assume that our income at this point drops another rank again, putting us at 1100.
195 / 24 = 9 days to unlock challenges.
So at day 58, we've unlocked challenges, and we're at 5 zeta mats.
20 / ( (1000 / 2000) + (6/7) ) = 15 days per zeta upgrade
Day 69 for two, day 84 for three, etc.
RS/RZ:
18800 / 1300 = 15 days to pay off our fleet points tax
At this point, we have SF unlocked and Slave I at 5* (we've spent all of our FS to get this). In the meantime, we've gotten:
15 * 13 = 195 blueprints and are now at 378/1015 of what we need.
Since we're getting now 26 / day...
637 / 26 = 25 days to 5* all 8 ships
Now it's day 40, and we've finally started being able to do zeta mat challenges. From here, let's assume we rush buying zeta mats (1300/2000 per day). Let's assume a drop rate of 1 per attempt, so 6 in a week, so 6/7/day. Our rank is going to drop though, so:
20 / ( (1200 / 2000) + (6/7) ) = 14 days
Day 54, we has gotten our first Zeta upgrade.
RS:
18800 / 1300 = 15 days to pay off our fleet points tax
At this point, we have SF unlocked and Slave I at 5* (we've spent all of our FS to get this). In the meantime, we've gotten:
15 * 13 = 195 blueprints and are now at 378/1015 of what we need.
Since we're getting now 26 / day...
637 / 26 = 25 days to 5* all 8 ships
Now it's day 40, and we've finally started being able to do zeta mat challenges. We're still going to spend FS on ships to keep up our rank.
20 / ( (6/7) ) = 23 days
At day 63, we have our first Zeta upgrade. Day 86 for two.
Comparison: At day 58, both RZ & RZ/RS are at nearly identical places. The latter will have a slight lead in zeta mats and a tiny lead in fleet points, but traded this for 21 days of going without a zeta upgrade. Even if those mats only granted a single rank bump (say, top 20 to top 10, 50 crystals / day), that's a sacrifice of 1050 crystals.
RZ vs RS is not so pretty. Even assuming a pretty harsh drop in rank (from top 100 to top 500) and a very optimistic drop rate for zeta mats (1 per attempt so 2 per day), RS spends the first 3 months behind a full zeta upgrades. By day 86, we've given up 2650 crystals for a marginally stronger fleet. Remember, even at day 86, is only a single * ahead on every ship (on average RS is at 6.5* while RZ&RS/RZ are at 5.5*). Also, we're assuming RS and RZ aren't losing any rank due to having to focus on DS ships. If that's not true (i.e. you'd have to max out Boba Fett, Sun Fac, FOTP, ITP), then the math falls further against RS.
Variations: What if the math is different for you?
RS gains if...
- The zeta mat drop rate is more than 1 / attempt
- You'll drop farther than fleet rank 500 due to a single * difference sometimes
- Your arena rank change will gain you less than 50 crystals
- You already have Sun Fac and/or GeoSpy unlocked
- You don't have characters with useful zeta upgrades ready to go
- You have far more blueprints than I do
RZ gains if...
- The zeta mat drop rate is less than 1 / attempt
- Your fleet rank is worse than 200 already
- Your arena rank change will gain you more than 50 crystals
- You get any benefit from having zeta upgrades (more raid points, more GW points, better tournament rank, etc)
- You have less blueprints than I do
