"Mageduckey;785357" wrote:
It's just as guaranteed as some of your assumptions. You can't shoot mine down without also invalidating yours.
We're going in circles on this and I'm pretty sure we're both saying the same thing. Rather than continue to circle around - let's just both agree either RS or RZ can get screwed by changes that EA does at any time. Agreed?
Further, RZ has the advantage of reaping rewards faster, but has the disadvantage of being less agile towards meta changes compared to RS. Yes?
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
Actually your math is off - you only get 12 blueprints a day from GW, not 13 (400 * 3 = 1200, not 1300). 1160 / 12 = 96.66666666667. So my math isn't off.
You're not compensating that you can get blueprints for JC and GS from energy. I'm assuming that between the 6 potentials, we get one blueprint a day. So 13, not 12.
1160 is also incorrect. That assumes all 8 ships are gotten from GW tokens, but instead 145 of them (the slave I blueprints) have to be acquired from FS. So 1015, not 1160.
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
Okay, but you're banking just as much that they won't release multiple useful zetas in that time frame. You can't call me out for "banking on _____" when you're banking the exact same amount but in the opposite direction. Either we both get to do it or neither of us gets to do it. I'll let you decide, but needs to be the same both ways.
Disagree. My assumption is based on the current state of the game. Obviously however, EA could change the meta and likely will, which means that overall this is admittedly a pretty weak point, but since the current state favors RZ, it is a minor advantage.
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
Yes they will, because it won't take them as long to get the same number of zetas as the RZ. It takes them 13-14 days instead of 30. So while RZ is attempting to catch up on fleet strength, RS gathers zetas in half the time and then proceeds with their advantage before RZ has a chance of catching up.
I agree. But you penalized RS *zero* fleet points for this. You need to compensate, or your math is simply wrong.
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
You don't have an upgrade those first 30 days though, dude. You have 0 zeta upgrades for the first 30 days while you're spending fleet tokens on only zetas. Then it takes an additional 32 days after you get your zeta for me to get mine. That means I'm only 32 days behind on zeta upgrades. Because the initial 30 neither of us has a zeta upgrade so I'm not behind.
You should re-read my most recent math post, but bet me reiterate:
Day 33: RZ gets first zeta upgrade
Day 40: RS unlocks challenges
Day 63: RS gets first zeta upgrade
Day 69: RZ gets its second zeta upgrade, putting pure RS behind
etc...
In short, RZ will get its second zeta upgrade shortly after RS gets its first. So, it will again be behind 1 zeta upgrade. Yes, it can mitigate this, by adopting the RS/RZ strategy that I proposed and I discussed its advantages/disadvantages as trading a significantly amount of crystals for a moderately better fleet. But pure RS is going to spend a lot of time behind in zeta upgrades.
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
Because you're spending on zetas for 30 days. I'm only spending on zetas for half that time. So my fall won't be nearly as harsh as yours.
Not as harsh I agree with, but you didn't acknowledge any drop at all, which is my point.
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
Except the only way RS gets screwed, realistically, is if zetas aren't available in challenges anymore or if their drop rate is severely nerfed. Otherwise they won't get screwed as much as RZ because they will have better fleet arena positioning to handle whatever changes are made.
Not true. We could be overestimating their drop rate, which would push an advantage towards RZ. My latest math is assuming a drop rate of 1/attempt which is very generous. Another likely option is that new ships get released, that force both strategies to switch ships or drop rank, thus rendering the FS spent in ships a waste (this is a pretty big risk I think you're ignoring/underestimating, as EA has already promised new ships and a lot of them like droids, could disrupt the meta).
EA could not release new relevant zetas for 6 months or the current zetas could all stop being relevant 2 months from now thanks to meta changes (meaning that having zetas doesn't end up mattering). There's obviously a lot of others too. I think you're also banking on EA making ships more important in the immediate future, but they didn't even use ships for the squad arena that awarded a ship!
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
You might not have said it was an auto-win, but in all of your points you indicate that having that one single zeta is significant enough to sacrifice 30 days of fleet growth.
Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. I said with a very modest (a single bracket bump) you'll need 50 crystals/day. Over 30 days that is a *lot* of crystals. Maybe your arena rank is more stable than mine. I oscillate between rank 1 and rank 30, for reference. Typically I place between 11-20, and I usually come down to have 2 games to place in to the top 10 (needing to win one or the other to get in).
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
That's fair, but how do lower blueprints benefit RZ? You're still behind 30 days (worth of fleet tokens), while the RS player only needs, say, 15 days to get their zeta upgrade. They take half the time to do it, meaning they are putting fewer fleet tokens into zetas and more into ships.
Imagine if you will it took 7* ships instead of 5* ships to do the challenges. That extra time delay would push back the start time for doing zeta mats challenges. The longer the start time is delayed, the more advantage RZ has (because their time to unlock a zeta upgrade won't increase). So people that have less blueprints than me and/or less fleet rank should lean more towards RZ. Those with better fleet rank and/or more blueprints should lean more towards RS.
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
Ah, I suppose I missed where you said you were adding in the JC energy mission. However, a level 60 who's just accessed fleets can't get to 8-B Hard (requires level 76). So my math above is still correct - 1160 / 12 = 97 days.
This is a key point of my math, fair. I'm entirely in a community of players that are all 80+, so the idea that the mission wasn't available didn't even cross my mind. Good point. No offense, but I'm not going to redo the math, since it's not a relevant scenario to me. I'm curious how it will affect the results, though I think it'll be small.
"Ricter;785293" wrote:
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
But after that gap they are on equal footing in arena (albeit maybe have to fight up the ladder a little), they are ahead in ships, and they are more prepared for future zeta upgrades and ship releases - in short, they are more resilient to the constantly changing state of this game.
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
I apologize for turning condescending, that wasn't my intent. I had a really bad day yesterday (almost crashed twice due to "unintelligent" drivers in the fresh snow) and I didn't turn that off fully before responding. I'm sorry.
Fair. Apologies if I've come across as an ass. I'm actually really interested in the answer here - I've been saving my fleet shipments and I'm going to spend them based on the result of the discussion because I wanted to have my strategy checked before I committed to it (I haven't dropped in fleet rank yet as an aside, but I don't think that proves much as a lot of people are just trying to figure out fleets yet).
"Mageduckey;784086" wrote:
(I provided evidence, if only marginally, to show that your claims were on shaky grounds - recent actions by the devs); I was simply asking you to prove they were wrong in order to completely discount them, OR to prove yours were right if they were going to be the basis of discounting mine. That's all.
Alright, fair - but that marginal evidence also works against you. For the sake of example, that same power creep could hit ships just as well as it does arena. And honestly, I think this is very likely - the devs have only released a tiny amount of the ships possible so far, and there are a lot of pilot characters without ships yet. It could happen on say, day 35. If it does, in order to maintain fleet rank, both RS and RZ would have to pivot to the new meta ships in order to maintain rank. Any delay in unlocking the challenges or reduction of the efficacy of the challenges makes for a large boon to the RZ strategy.
In other words, we're both trying to predict the will of the devs on far too little information and can both get screwed pretty hard.
