Forum Discussion
7 years ago
where did you get that 317.7 speed thing?
i said it happened when yoda hit rebels. i didn't count when thrawan was first target.
you know what funny thing is?
when my cls was 282 speed that 50-50 senario happened.
after my cls hit 283, it has never happened for weeks.
just assume it's 2 weeks.
its probability is 0.3^14×100=0.00000478%
plz don't say it was just a luck. that's nonsense.
i hope you consult people with common sense bro.
GladOS-013
7 years agoHero (Retired)
Hi @aprillier !
Please remember that the volunteers who work this board do so because we like helping. Also remember that according to the board rules, personal attacks are not allowed. Just because you disagree with crzdroid's assertion does not mean he's wrong, nor does it mean you should insult him.
Unfortunately, your probability numbers (0.3^14) are highly inaccurate. It would require the following assumptions:
1. You fought this opponent once per day every day for 14 in a row.
2. In all 14 days, CLS never got to go before Revan.
3. You checked all mods on every character before every battle to ensure the relative speeds remained consistent (for example, what if your opponent moves mods around for HSith raid, and sometimes has different speed ratios?)
Anytime that GMY attacks CLS or Thrawn (remember, Learn Control won't trigger when CLS is attacked, since it only triggers on "other" Rebels) needs to be removed from the equation, because there's no probability there. So 30% of 14 battles is 4.2, so I'll round that to 4. Of the remaining 10 times that GMY hits R2, Han, or Chewie, there's a 50% chance of the coin flip.
So the math is closer to 0.5^10 x 100 = 0.097%. While still an "unlikely" number, it is definitely possible. (Side note, even 0.00000478% is still possible. The odds of winning the Powerball lottery are about 10x lower than that, yet some people still win.)
Since probability doesn't "stack" - your chance of GMY going before Revan tomorrow (assuming the same opponent, and a GMY that attacks Han, Chewie, or R2) is still 50% - not 99.9%.
If you truly believe CLS is not gaining turn meter properly, can you please record some of your battles and post them here (or on Youtube and put the link here) so we can review. If the battle is on 1x speed, it should be fairly easy for us to watch CLS turn meter bar when GMY attacks, and determine if his tm is increasing as expected.
Thanks, and have a great day!
Please remember that the volunteers who work this board do so because we like helping. Also remember that according to the board rules, personal attacks are not allowed. Just because you disagree with crzdroid's assertion does not mean he's wrong, nor does it mean you should insult him.
Unfortunately, your probability numbers (0.3^14) are highly inaccurate. It would require the following assumptions:
1. You fought this opponent once per day every day for 14 in a row.
2. In all 14 days, CLS never got to go before Revan.
3. You checked all mods on every character before every battle to ensure the relative speeds remained consistent (for example, what if your opponent moves mods around for HSith raid, and sometimes has different speed ratios?)
Anytime that GMY attacks CLS or Thrawn (remember, Learn Control won't trigger when CLS is attacked, since it only triggers on "other" Rebels) needs to be removed from the equation, because there's no probability there. So 30% of 14 battles is 4.2, so I'll round that to 4. Of the remaining 10 times that GMY hits R2, Han, or Chewie, there's a 50% chance of the coin flip.
So the math is closer to 0.5^10 x 100 = 0.097%. While still an "unlikely" number, it is definitely possible. (Side note, even 0.00000478% is still possible. The odds of winning the Powerball lottery are about 10x lower than that, yet some people still win.)
Since probability doesn't "stack" - your chance of GMY going before Revan tomorrow (assuming the same opponent, and a GMY that attacks Han, Chewie, or R2) is still 50% - not 99.9%.
If you truly believe CLS is not gaining turn meter properly, can you please record some of your battles and post them here (or on Youtube and put the link here) so we can review. If the battle is on 1x speed, it should be fairly easy for us to watch CLS turn meter bar when GMY attacks, and determine if his tm is increasing as expected.
Thanks, and have a great day!
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