There's so much already been written and posted about this entire bugged career. What I found worked for me was this:
As previously stated, the clues may or may not match any or all of the suspect but get them anyway since it all helps towards the daily performance. Issue the APB once you get your clues, then 'ask about suspect' from as many sims as you can see on the lot. You may get lucky and they point towards the suspect; the ones that point are usually pretty accurate. You could get really lucky and get one to point and say 'isn't that him right there'. Whatever you do, save your game before making an arrest. That way, if you're wrong, simply reload and you won't take a performance hit.
If you don't get any sims pointing, or no-one knows anything, then go back to the police station and issue another APB which will probably take you to another lot. Sometimes it's taken 4 or 5 APBs before I can get an arrest.
One other thing; if you notice a sim making furtive or secretive glances around them every so often, that's them - but make sure that before each arrest you save your game!
Hope this helps :)