I can only speculate but there are some aspects regarding Sims4 I was investigating lately and I'd like to stress for those who are still hoping for this franchise. I'm sorry if it's hard to read - English is foreign to me and the subject is pretty complex:
- No matter how we love Sims and how big we are viewing this game it's not the major profit bringer for EA.
In 2019 it was reported as something big that Sims4 revenue overcome 1Billion through it's whole LIFETIME. Meanwhile FIFA title helped EA generate ~$1.3 billion in revenue per YEAR!
So development of Sims4 obviously never was a priority for EA from strategic point of view.
- Most of EA revenue comes not from direct game distribution but from "loot boxes" aka EA Ultimate Team. The model they can't implement (yet) for Sims franchise due to modders providing quality content for free.
https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1397650874378465281?s=20&t=DwohUaSzH6S9k3nqvWvDMQ
- But recently Console segment of TS4 players is at least on par and probably even a bit bigger than PC segment. Meaning half of player-base can't have CC content, hmmm....
A free giveaway of The Sims 4 for PlayStation Plus users led to the title’s console players outnumbering PC users for the first time (2.5M vs. 2.2M). The title has long earned the lion’s share of its revenue from the sale of in-game content, so the giveaway presented a low-risk way to attract new audience members and potentially convert them to spenders down the road.
- Obvious solution is bringing in "Store". Which in Sims4 we are having in the form of Kits. If you check the cost of the game for you as a customer in 2021, you'll see that ~40% of it's cost are Kits. Guys, 40% of their gross income for plain assets! No coding, no bug fixing, profit! Of course Kits will be one of the main model of content distribution for them from now on.
- Though this information is pretty hard to find since around 2019-2020 Sims4 is showing decline in revenue and I think considering how long Sims4 is lasting they are putting the game on life-support mode.
In MMORPG this model is realized through milking so called "whales" while doing bare minimum for game maintenance. These are players so devoted to the game they'll buy whatever is released/needed to play it.
"In MMORPG whales make up roughly 0.2% of the player base, and yet they spend almost 51% of the money".
Though Sims4 has no loot boxes in this franchise we still have completionists - "I'll buy it 'cause I have everything from this franchise" and those who always hunger for assets - "Yes, MWS are buggy but I want the world so bad". They are ideal base for Kits and low-effort packs. Of course for Sims "whales" ratio won't be so dramatic 'cause different distribution models but I assume it's considerable to milk "whales" in Sims.
My conclusion from all this is that for Sims 4 we'll see further decline in content quantity and quality due to cost reduction in game life-support state. It is and will be counter-balanced only by individual teams devotion & vision. Luckily for Stuff Packs team has SimGuruConnor who's obviously very passionate for game and has vision resonating with how earlier games in franchise worked. For Game Packs team this obviously is not the case. Unfortunately Kits probably would lead to obliteration of Stuff Packs. Low cost high income. Overall everything will be shifting towards easy assets. I'm not expecting anything exciting from Sims4 at this stage.
As for potential Sims5 I bet it won't be continuation of what Sims1 and Sims2 put into this franchise. It won't be a sandbox life simulator. If you'll check latest EA CEO interview where he speaks about Sims while playing a drinking game taking a shot each time he mentions Metaverse you'll be wasted.
So ideal model for them would be without an open possibility for modding to create higher demand for cosmetic assets. Plus they can't sell athletes with this franchise but they can sell trends and celebrities. And I view all recent collabs with brands and celebs as a test. To achieve this they need to make game semi-online hyping it as a Metaverse and they are clearly toying with this idea judging from the recent 5$ survey.
Just realize that from the business point of view they are not interested at all in developing and selling NOT a live service game with intricate AI and simulation. Development time and cost will be high. But revenue from direct game sales is minimal for them. If they are to keep Sims franchise alive they need a reliable constant way to keep it monetized as a live service. Old-school gamers demanding "gameplay" like in Sims2 are a negligible and discardable segment of potential customers. Nothing personal just business.
And to all who are saying "but they tell us..." Just recently they tell us for example that they can't distribute game in Russia without cover changing, later releasing it without cover changing. And then they tell us that release will be delayed 'cause of Russia while in reality they are working on patching the unplayable game. They tell us many things, especially that "they hear us", all the time, but are these thing believable?
Sorry to be gloom but the whole MWS situation left me very frustrated and wounded in my deepest feelings towards the franchise 'cause I'm obviously in this negligible nostalgic minority.
